Computing in the Year 2020

Abstract

It is difficult to be a prophet. The field is full of such crystal ball gazers who have guessed wrong. However, even with such a caution, I will attempt to do so based on my experiences in the field and based on the quote:

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” George Santayana

I will describe the technological imperatives that suggest that the combination of very high speed microprocessors and gigabit plus networking will create a distributed computing environment I call “The National BackPlane”. In this world, we will create over geographical distances a computing environment which mirrors in many ways the computer systems and architectures we have developed in Computer Science over the past twenty years.

Technology is not the only changing area. The use of such a National BackPlane will allow for substantial changes in the way we live as technical people and as members of our society. In the United States, Many believe we are on an Electronic Frontier where a new civilization is being formed and where changes brought about will effect the way all of us live. Terms like Cyberspace are commonly used when discussing this new environment. I wll attempt to describe the thrills and dangers of lkiving on the new Frontier and where we may be led as technological innovators and concerned humans.