Risk Analysis pp 667-685 | Cite as

Risk Assessment of the Army’s Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program

  • Willard Fraize
  • Robert Cutler
  • William Duff
  • John Perry
  • Brian Price
  • Thomas Kartachak
  • Michael Stamatelatos
Part of the Advances in Risk Analysis book series (AIRA, volume 8)

Abstract

The Army’s Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program is intended to destroy the nation’s stockpile of unitary chemical weapons. The stockpile, consisting of three basic chemical agent types in both explosive and bulk storage configurations, is stored at eight Army sites across the conterminous United States. This paper describes the probabilistic risk assessment that was carried out to assist the Army in determining which of five proposed disposal program alternatives, all large scale efforts involving multiple activities at multiple sites, pose the least risk to public safety for the population groups living near the sites or along the proposed transportation corridors. The risk analysis rests on a foundation of approximately 3000 hypothesized accidents—a mix of modeled and historic data. Consequences for each accident are expressed as potential fatalities and the extent (length and area) of the resulting agent dispersion plume; probability is expressed as the chance that the accident will happen during the stockpile disposal program. Results are expressed in terms of five different risk measures. Uncertainty in the risk assessment results was estimated. The results showed that the “on-site disposal” option is expected to pose the least programmatic risk.

Keywords

Risk assessment chemical weapons programmatic risk individual risk atmospheric dispersion 

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References

  1. 1.
    U.S. Army Program Executive Office — Program Manager for Chemical Demilitarization, Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program, Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement, January 1988.Google Scholar
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    GA Technologies Inc., Risk Analysis of the Onsite Disposal of Chemical Munitions, GA-C18562, prepared for the U.S. Army, Office of the Program Executive Officer — Program Manager for Chemical Demilitarization, SAPEO-CDE-IS-87010, August 1987.Google Scholar
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    GA Technologies Inc., Risk Analysis of the Disposal of Chemical Munitions at National or Regional Sites, GA-C18563, prepared for the U.S. Army, Office of the Program Executive Officer — Program Manager for Chemical Demilitarization, SAPEO-CDE-IS-87008, August 1987.Google Scholar
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    GA Technologies Inc., Risk Analysis of the Continued Storage of Chemical Munitions, GA-C18564, prepared for the U.S. Army, Office of the Program Executive Officer — Program Manager for Chemical Demilitarization, SAPEO-CDE-IS-87009, August 1987.Google Scholar
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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 1991

Authors and Affiliations

  • Willard Fraize
    • 1
  • Robert Cutler
    • 1
  • William Duff
    • 1
  • John Perry
    • 1
  • Brian Price
    • 1
  • Thomas Kartachak
    • 2
  • Michael Stamatelatos
    • 3
  1. 1.The MITRE CorporationMcLeanUSA
  2. 2.U.S. ArmyUSA
  3. 3.General AtomicsSan DiegoUSA

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