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Model Building and Forecasting with ARIMA Processes

  • Peter J. Brockwell
  • Richard A. Davis
Part of the Springer Series in Statistics book series (SSS)

Abstract

In this chapter we shall examine the problem of selecting an appropriate model for a given set of observations {X t , t = 1,..., n}. If the data (a) exhibits no apparent deviations from stationarity and (b) has a rapidly decreasing autocorrelation function, we shall seek a suitable ARMA process to represent the mean-corrected data. If not, then we shall first look for a transformation of the data which generates a new series with the properties (a) and (b). This can frequently be achieved by differencing, leading us to consider the class of ARIMA (autoregressive-integrated moving average) processes which is introduced in Section 9.1. Once the data has been suitably transformed, the problem becomes one of finding a satisfactory ARMA(p, q) model, and in particular of choosing (or identifying) p and q.

Keywords

ARMA Model ARIMA Model ARMA Process Final Prediction Error Partial Autocorrelation Function 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 1987

Authors and Affiliations

  • Peter J. Brockwell
    • 1
  • Richard A. Davis
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of StatisticsColorado State UniversityFort CollinsUSA

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