The Episodicity of Statistical Long Range Transport Models
The implications of the simple wet/dry Markov chain approach to rainfall employed in many linear statistical long range transport models have been investigated by deriving the full probability distribution of deposition, and considering the resulting episodicity. When applied to Europe it is found that the predicted deposition field tends to be significantly more episodic than observed in practice, and that this episodicity is more sensitive to the wet scavenging rate than is the mean deposition. This suggests that wet scavenging may be less efficient during high deposition events, and hence more affected by non-linear chemistry. Equally background1 deposition may have an important role in determining the episodicity of wet deposition, particularly at sensitive, remote, high rainfall sites.
KeywordsTravel Time Line Source Markov Chain Model Rainfall Rate Scavenge Rate
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