Household Projections and Housing Market Behaviour
Demographic behaviour with respect to household formation and dissolution is both motivational and situational. Very few household models deal with either motive or situation. This chapter sketches an approach to incorporate aspects of the situation in the modelling effort. At the intra-regional level the housing market has the most pervasive effects on processes of household evolution. In turn, household evolution is an important driving force behind housing market transactions. Some household events, like leaving the parental home, or a separation, imply a residential move of at least one of the persons involved and are therefore dependent on the availability and accessibility of a dwelling vacancy. Other household events, like the death of a single person, generate vacancies in the housing stock.
The SONAR model is an event-driven dynamic simulation model of both household evolution and housing market transactions at the local (municipal) level, which can be applied to any user-defined combination of municipalities in the Netherlands. The model supplies full detail on household events that either imply a move (event-dependence) or increase the propensity to move (state-dependence) and on the intensity and outcome of housing market search. The generation and allocation of vacant dwellings is part of the housing market search algorithm and feed-back effects on household evolution can be traced. Policy measures with respect to the number and composition of dwelling construction and housing allocation can be evaluated in terms of the redistributive effects of dwellings over households.
KeywordsHousing Market Parental Home Household Formation Housing Shortage Dwelling Type
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