National Household Forecasts for The Netherlands
The Population Forecast of Statistics Netherlands (NCBS), which is revised annually, projects the population by age, sex, and marital status. As tnarital status is increasingly a less accurate indication of life style, the NCBS has decided to publish Household Forecasts as well. The first of these was issued in June 1992. Six household positions are distinguished: living in an institution, living in the parental home, living alone, living with a partner, lone parents, and other members of private households. A semi-dynamic model is used. The forecasts of the population by age, sex, and marital status are based on a dynamic model. The distribution of these population categories by household position is based on a static model. The number of households is forecast on the basis of the distribution of the population by household position. The main developments in the forecast period 1990–2010 are the increase in one-person households and in non-marital cohabitation. While one out of four households consisted of one person in 1990, this will be one out of three in 2010. As a result, the average will decline from 2.45 to 2.27 persons per private household.
KeywordsMarital Status Private Household Parental Home Forecast Period Lone Parent
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- De Beer, J. (1991), Bevolkingsprognose 1991: Methode, Veronderstellingen en Uitkomsten, Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 39 (12), pp. 29–40.Google Scholar
- Heida, H.R. (1991), Primos Huishoudenmodel. Dynamische Simulatie van de Huishoudensontwikkeling, INRO-TNO: Delft.Google Scholar
- Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics (1984), Prognose van de Bevolking van Nederland na 1980. Deel 2. Modelbouw en Hypothesevorming, SDU: The Hague.Google Scholar
- Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics (1991), Netherlands Fertility Survey 1988. Cohabitation, Marriage, Birth Control, Employment and Fertility, Demographic Working Paper, Department of Population Statistics, Voorburg.Google Scholar
- Van Imhoff, e., & N.W. Keilman (1991), LIPRO 2.0: an Application of a Dynamic Demographic Projection Model to Household Structure in the Netherlands, Swets & Zeitlinger: Amsterdam/Lisse.Google Scholar