A Long—Term Model for the World Economy

  • INGENUE Team


This paper presents the mathematical structure, computational aspects and calibration process of the general equilibrium, multi-regional, over-lapping-generations model INGENUE. The purpose of this research is to study the international capital flows induced by differential demographic dynamics in various regions of the world in a context of global finance. The most recent UN demographic projections until the year 2050 are used to divide the world into six demographic areas displaying similar characteristics in terms of their relative position in the demographic transition process: three developed areas with rapidly ageing populations — the European zone, the American zone and Japan — and three emerging areas with slower ageing processes. Dynamic simulations of the world interest rate, current accounts and property rates of the regional capital are presented for the next decades.


Interest Rate Gross Domestic Product Current Account Real Interest Rate Market Imperfection 


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© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2002

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  • INGENUE Team

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