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A Dynamic Microsimulation Model System for Regional Travel Demand Forecasting

  • Konstadinos G. Goulias
  • Ryuichi Kitamura
Part of the Transportation Research, Economics and Policy book series (TRES)

Abstract

This chapter describes a new regional travel demand forecasting method, based on micro-simulation and dynamic analysis. In this method, socioeconomic and demographic forecasting is combined with dynamic travel demand forecasting to more accurately depict complex travel behavior. The system has two components: a micro-simulator of household socioeconomics and demographics, and a dynamic model system of household car ownership and mobility. Many explanatory variables that are exogenous to other forecasting models are endogenous in this system. Future travel behavior is predicted for each simulation year by creating an entire temporal path of change in socioeconomic, demographic, and travel demand variables. Most model parameters were estimated using observations from five waves of the Dutch National Mobility Panel (DNMP) from 1984–1988. Other sources of information were also used to estimate key parameters. This chapter reviews the model structure, data requirements, estimation methods, and assumptions. Examples of forecasting for the year 2010 illustrate the predictive capability and limitations of the new forecasting method.

Keywords

Labor Force Participation Mode Choice Travel Behavior Travel Demand Dynamic Model System 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 1997

Authors and Affiliations

  • Konstadinos G. Goulias
    • 1
  • Ryuichi Kitamura
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and The Pennsylvania Transportation InstitutePennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkUSA
  2. 2.Department of Transportation EngineeringKyoto UniversitySaku-ko KyotoJapan

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