Decision making under uncertainty is as old as mankind. Even in the Antiquity some people suspected that uncertainty could be modelled via chance mechanisms. When the Roman consul Ceasar crossed the river Rubicon (49 BC) — the first move in a hazardous attempt to defeat his rival Pompeius — he spoke the famous words: ‘Alea iacta est’. Indeed, the die had been cast, but what were the possible outcomes of his risky action: a rapid victory for Pompeius, a rapid victory for himself, a drawn-out civil war, or a peaceful settlement after some skirmishing? And did Ceasar subjectively assess the outcome probabilities before he decided to move?
KeywordsFuzzy Logic Fuzzy Number Human Judgement Possibility Distribution Possibility Theory
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