Advertisement

Semi Parametric Estimation of the Incubation Period of AIDS

  • Jeremy M. G. Taylor
  • Yun Chon

Abstract

The incubation period distribution of AIDS is estimated from the grouped bivariate data which arises from a prevalent cohort study. A penalised likelihood approach is used to obtain smooth estimates of the incubation period distribution. We also examine how the individuals age at HIV infection and changes in the incubation period can be incorporated into the analysis.

Keywords

Incubation Period Baseline Hazard Independence Model Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study Aerosol Pentamidine 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Bacchetti, B. (1990). Estimating the incubation period of AIDS by comparing population infection and diagnosis patterns. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 85, 1002–1008.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Bacchetti, P. and Jewell, N.P. (1991). Non—parametric estimation of the incubation period from a prevalent cohort. Biometrics, 47, 947–960.Google Scholar
  3. Biggar, R.J. and the International Registry of Seroconverters. (1990). AIDS incubation in 1891 HIV seroconverters from different exposure groups. AIDS 4, 1059–1066.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Brookmeyer, R. and Goedert, J.J. (1989). Censoring in an epidemic with an application to hemophilia—associated AIDS. Biometrics 45, 325–35.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Darby, S.C., Doll, R., Thakrar, B. et al. (1990). Time from infection with HIV to onset of AIDS in patients with haemophilia in the U.K. Statistics in Medicine 9, 681–9.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. De Gruttola, V. and Lagakos, S.W. (1989). Analysis of doubly—censored survival data, with application to AIDS. Biometrics 45, 1–11.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. B. Efron. (1982) The jackknife, the bootstrap and the other resampling plans. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics. Philadelphia.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Gail, M.H., Rosenberg, P.S. and Goedert, J.J. (1990). Therapy may explain recent deficits in AIDS incidence. Journal of the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 3, 296–306.Google Scholar
  9. Graham, N.M.H., Zeger, S.L., Kuo, V. et al. (1991). Zidovidine use in AIDS—free HIV-1 seropositive homosexual men in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS), 1987 — 1989. Journal of the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 4, 267–76.Google Scholar
  10. Green, P.J., (1987). Penalized likelihood for general semi—parametric regression models. Int. Statist. Rev. 55, 245–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Kaslow, R.A., Ostrow, D.G., Detels, R., Phair, J.P., Polk,B.F., Rinaldo, C.R. Jr. (1987). The Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study: rationale, organization, and selected characteristics of the participants. American Journal of Epidemiology 126, 310–18.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Keiding, N. (1990). Statistical inference in the Lexis diagram, Technical Report 90/4. Statistical Research Unit, University of Copenhagen.Google Scholar
  13. Kuo, J-M., Taylor, J.M.G., and Detels, R. (1991). Estimating the AIDS incubation period from a prevalent cohort. American Journal of Epidemiology 133, 1050–57.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  14. Lexis, W. (1875). Einleitung in die Theorie der Bevölkerungsstatistik. Trübner, Strassburg. Pp. 5–7 translated to English by N. Keyfitz and printed, with Fig. 1, in Mathematical Demography (ed. D. Smith & N. Keyfitz ), Springer, Berlin (1977)Google Scholar
  15. Taylor, J.M.B., Kuo, J-M., and Detels, R. (1991), Is the incubation period of AIDS lengthening?. Journal of the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 4, 69–75.Google Scholar
  16. Taylor, J.M.G., Chon, Y. and Detels, R. (1991). Smoothing grouped bivariate data to obtain the incubation period distribution of AIDS. UCLA Statistics Series Technical Report.Google Scholar
  17. Turnbull, B. (1976). The empirical distribution function with arbitrarily grouped, censored and truncated data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 38, 290–5.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 1992

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jeremy M. G. Taylor
    • 1
  • Yun Chon
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of BiostatisticsUCLA School of Public HealthLos AngelesUSA

Personalised recommendations