Modelling and Assessment of Energy Demand
Until the four-fold increase in oil prices in 1973 energy* was generally taken as abundantly available cheap commodity with the result that its consumption was increasing very rapidly. It increased by a factor of 3.5 between 1950 and 1975. At the same time the share of oil in the global supply of energy increased from 27% in 1950 to 47% in 1975. Following the oil crisis of 1973 there has been a world wide realisation that the era of cheap energy is over, that the world resources of fossil fuels are depleting rapidly, and that the availability of energy in general and of oil in particular will become increasingly more difficult with time. The worst hit as a result of this changing global energy picture are the developing countries which are still at a low level of energy consumption (see Table 1) and, therefore, need large inputs of energy to implement their socioeconomic development programmes and to satisfy the growing aspirations of their rapidly increasing polulation.
KeywordsGross Domestic Product Energy Demand Heat Pump World Region Final Energy
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