Reality is not free of risk. The world around us continually places individuals, groups, and nations in the position of making decisions, and decisions always entail a change in risk, either up or down. It is clear that reality does not impose high-risk (of death say) consequences on much of humanity with any particularly large probability since the human race would die out. In fact, as the birth rates are seldom greater than a few percent, the risk of death to the population cannot exceed that few percent for very long without the population disappearing. This implies, and it is backed up by simple observation, that very-large-consequence occurrences cannot, and indeed do not, have very large probabilities, while high-frequency events (those with large probabilities) must have, relatively speaking, small consequences.
KeywordsNuclear Power Plant Failure Probability Event Sequence Consequence Category Fault Tree
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