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Intuitive Prediction of Growth

  • William A. Wagenaar
  • H. Timmers
Part of the NATO Conference Series book series (NATOCS, volume 3)

Abstract

Many world-wide problems of today are related for a considerable part to growth. Economical growth and growth of populations induce shortages of energy, raw materials and food, and an increase of cost of living and pollution. These processes show a marked exponential character: it is going faster and faster. Any attempt to control these processes will depend on the cooperation of individual citizens; they should first appreciate how fast a growth process will be, before they can reasonably weigh the growth problem against a number of alternative issues, such as religion or personal comfort.

Keywords

Exponential Growth Growth Process Logarithmic Scale Pollution Index Absolute Size 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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References

  1. De Zeeuw, G. and Wagenaar, W.A. Are subjective probabilities probabilities? In: C. -A.S. Stael von Holstein (Ed.): The concept of probability in psychological experiemnts. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, 1974.Google Scholar
  2. Peterson, C.R. and Beach, L.R., Man as an intuitive statistician. Psychological Bulletin 1967, 68., 29–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D., Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology 1973, 5, 207–232.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. , The belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin 1971, 76, 105–110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Wagenaar, W.A. and Sagaria, S. Misperception of exponential growth. Perception and Psychophysics 1975, 18, 4l6–422.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Plenum Press, New York 1978

Authors and Affiliations

  • William A. Wagenaar
    • 1
  • H. Timmers
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute for Perception TNOSoesterbergNetherlands

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