A World without the NPT?

Abstract

The world we have experienced since the NPT came into force in 1970 has not been the best of all possible worlds; the world without the NPT would undoubtedly not be the worst of all possible worlds. But is a world without the NPT possible or probable? How might it come about? In principle, several paths might be possible. First, it is extremely difficult but not impossible to imagine a catastrophic failure of the NPT in 1995, following the conference convened in accordance with Article X.2, “to decide whether the treaty shall continue in force indefinitely, or shall be extended for an additional fixed period or periods.” A fundamental transformation of East-West or North-South relations could undermine the foundations of the treaty, or the dynamics of a controversial extension conference could result in chaos. While such developments are unlikely, if a collapse of the treaty does not occur, it will not be a consequence of language that would appear to make the legal termination of the NPT in 1995 unlikely, if not unthinkable. Rather, it will be a result of political forces favoring the extension of the treaty for a majority of its parties. Second, blatant noncompliance by any party, overt moves by the holdout states to demonstrate their nuclear capabilities (including nuclear testing), or other dramatic nuclear events (including nuclear theft, sabotage, or terrorism) could indicate to parties that the NPT was irrelevant, at best a hollow shell, and that its survival was of no interest to them. The occurrence of any such events, however, seems unlikely before 1995. Third, the NPT could be undermined by the withdrawal of a large number of member states or, to prevent such a massive withdrawal, amendments or compromises which would have to diminish the authority, credibility, and effectiveness of the treaty. Even this prospect is not probable, but it is all too easily imagined, particularly because efforts to obtain universal adherence for the treaty have brought in parties who may not receive, or may not understand they are participating in, the full benefits of the treaty.