Central Region Conflicts Dynamics Model (CRCDM)
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SHAPE Technical Centre has over the years carried out several studies on the balance of conventional forces in the Central Region (CR) of Allied Command Europe (ACE). The purpose of the studies is in general to assess the NATO/Warsaw Pact (WP) force balance, the implications of any perceived imbalance and the identification of NATO force requirements ACE-wide. These studies have typically used computerised war-games, a technique which has severely limited the number of excursions studied. In 1981, a requirement was established for a simpler technique, enabling a large number of cases addressing widely different contingencies and alternatives to be assessed. Since the nature of the alternatives and options to be assessed was widely different, ranging from low- or no-cost political moves to large-scale force enhancements, it was clear at the outset that a top-down approach working directly on high-level conflict parameters was required. This paper will discuss the philosophy behind the approach, describe the model developed, and give examples of model results.
KeywordsForce Level Force Ratio Influence Diagram Force Separation Ground Force
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