Abstract
This chapter will cover those aspects of systems analysis that are more numerical in scope, dealing with ways to assess the relationship between dynamical models and empirical data. We shall describe techniques that have been found useful in estimating parameters of dynamic models. The chapter will also cover ways in which the modeler can assess how close the model predicts various quantitative and qualitative aspects of the real system under study. Finally we shall describe a method for pinpointing the exact nature of the model’s specification errors in terms of various parts of the model.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Barlas, Y. (1985). Comparing the observed and model-generated behavior patterns to validate system dynamic models. Proceedings of the 1985 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 1.
Box, M. J. (1965). A new method of constrained optimization and comparison other methods. Computer Journal, 8, 42–52.
Caceci, M. S., & Cacheris, W. P. (1984, May). Fitting curves to data. Byte Magazine, 9 (5), 340–362.
Forrester, J. W., & Senge, P. M. (1980). Tests for building confidence in system dynamic models. TIMS Studies in Management Sciences, 14, 201–228.
Gill, P. E., Murray, W., & Wright, M. (1981). Practical optimization. New York: Academic Press.
Gregson, R. A. M. (1983). Time series in psychology. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
Griner, G. et al. (1978). Validation of simulation models using statistical techniques, Proceedings of the Summer Computer Simulation Conference, 54–59.
Hamilton, M. S. (1980). Estimating lengths and orders of delays in system dynamics models. In J. Randers (Ed.), Elements of the system dynamics method (pp. 168–182 ). Cambridge, MA: M.I.T. Press.
Homer, J. (1983). Partial-Model testing as a validation tool for system dynamics, Proceedings of the 1983 International System Dynamics Conference, 919–932.
Joreskog, K. G. (1979). Advances in factor analysis and structural equation models. Cambridge, MA: Abt Books.
Kalman, R. E. (1960). A new approach to linear filtering and prediction problems. Journal of Basic Engineering, Series D, 82, 35–45.
Mass, N. J., & Senge, P. M. (1980). Alternative tests for selecting model variables. In J. Randers (Ed.), Elements of system dynamics method (pp. 205–225 ). Cambridge, MA: M.I.T. Press.
Neider, J. A., & Mead, R. (1965). A simplex method for function minimization. Computer Journal, 7, 308.
Peterson, D. W. (1975). Hypothesis, estimation, and validation of dynamic social models, Ph.D. dissertation, M. I. T., Cambridge, MA.
Peterson, D. W. (1980). Statistical tools for system dynamics. In J. Randers (Ed.), Elements of system dynamics method (pp. 226–245 ). Cambridge, MA: M.I.T. Press.
Pindyck, R. S., & Rubinfeld, D. L. (1981). Econometric models and economic forecasts. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Press, W., Flannery, B., Teukolsky, S., & Vetterling, W. (1986). Numerical recipes: The art of scientific computing. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Rowland, J. R., & Holmes, W. M. (1978). Simulation validation with sparse random data. Computing Electrical Engineering, 5, 37–49.
Schweppe, F. C. (1973). Uncertain dynamic systems. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Spendley, W., Hext, G. R., & Himsworth, F. R. (1962). Sequential application of simplex designs in optimization and evolutionary design. Technometrics, 4, 441–461.
Sterman, J. (1983). Appropriate summary statistics for evaluating historical fit of system dynamic models. Plenary Session, the 1983 International System Dynamics Conference, 203–260.
Thiel, H. (1958). Economic forecasts and policy. Amsterdam: North Holland.
Thiel, H. (1966). Applied economic forecasting. Amsterdam: North Holland.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1992 Plenum Press, New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Levine, R.L., Lodwick, W. (1992). Parameter Estimation and Assessing the Fit of Dynamic Models. In: Levine, R.L., Fitzgerald, H.E. (eds) Analysis of Dynamic Psychological Systems. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-6440-9_5
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-6440-9_5
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-1-4615-6442-3
Online ISBN: 978-1-4615-6440-9
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive