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Global Nuclear Energy/Materials Modeling in Support of Los Alamos Nuclear Vision Project: Long-Term Tradeoffs Between Nuclear-and Fossil-Fuel Burning

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Technology for Global Economic and Environmental Survival and Prosperity

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Abstract

A global economics/energy/environmental (E3) model has been adapted with a nuclear energy/materials model to understand better “top-level”, long-term trade offs between civilian nuclear power, nuclear-weapons proliferation, fossil-fuel burning, and global economic welfare. Using a “business-as-usual” (BAU) point-of-departure case, economic, resource, and proliferation-risk implications of plutonium recycle in LWRS, as well as greenhouse-gas-mitigating carbon taxes and a range of nuclear-energy costs (capital and fuel), have been examined After describing the essential elements of the analysis approach being developed to support the Los Alamos Nuclear Vision Project, preliminary examples of parametric variations about the BAU base-case scenario are presented. The results described herein represent a sampling from a collection of more extensive results. The primary motivation here is: a) to compare the BAU base case with results from other studies; b) to model on a regionally resolved global basis long-term (to year ∼2100) evolution of plutonium accumulation in a variety of forms under a limited range of fuel-cycle scenarios; and c) to illustrate a preliminary connectivity between risks associated with nuclear energy and fossil-fuel burning (e.g., the relationship between nuclear proliferation and greenhouse-gas accumulations).

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Systems Engineering and Integration Group Technology and Safety Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, 87545, USA

    R. A. Krakowski

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  1. R. A. Krakowski
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Global Foundation, Inc., Coral Gables, Florida, USA

    Behram N. Kursunoglu

  2. Florida International University, Miami, Florida, USA

    Stephan L. Mintz

  3. University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, USA

    Arnold Perlmutter

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© 1997 Springer Science+Business Media New York

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Krakowski, R.A. (1997). Global Nuclear Energy/Materials Modeling in Support of Los Alamos Nuclear Vision Project: Long-Term Tradeoffs Between Nuclear-and Fossil-Fuel Burning. In: Kursunoglu, B.N., Mintz, S.L., Perlmutter, A. (eds) Technology for Global Economic and Environmental Survival and Prosperity. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-5961-0_13

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-5961-0_13

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA

  • Print ISBN: 978-1-4613-7732-0

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-4615-5961-0

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