Abstract
How much confidence can be placed on past assessments of the impacts of drought on a region’s resource base and associated economy? Beyond crude, highly aggregated estimates, what can be said about the many biophysical and economic impacts of the 1988 drought in the United States? What would be the consequences of a string of droughts such as a modem recurrence of the notoriously hot and dry conditions of the 1930s Dust Bowl climate that affected large portions of the United States? The answers to these questions are not easy to obtain. The problem, in large measure, is that drought impact methodologies are poorly developed to undertake the complex task of estimating the consequences of drought (see Chapter 1 fora comprehensive list of economic, social, and environmental impacts). The call for improved drought impact methodologies comes from a long line of research (for example, Yevjevich et al., 1978; Rosenberg, 1980; Wilhite and Easterling, 1987; Riebsame et al., 1990). Riebsame et al. (1990) conclude that much has been learned in the last decade about the interplay between climate and natural resources systems. Simulation models are widely available in almost all drought-sensitive sectors, but they have yet to be integrated into a single program of impact analysis aimed at assessing the overall impact of drought on the entire natural resource base of a region. The purpose of this chapter is to describe a methodology that was developed to assess the overall response of a region’s natural resource base and associated economy to long-term changes in climate and to demonstrate the applicability of this methodology to the assessment of drought impacts.
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Easterling, W.E. (1993). Assessing the Regional Consequences of Drought: Putting the MINK Methodology to Work on Today’s Problems. In: Wilhite, D.A. (eds) Drought Assessment, Management, and Planning: Theory and Case Studies. Natural Resource Management and Policy, vol 2. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-3224-8_4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-3224-8_4
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