Abstract
Atmospheric CO2 levels are currently increasing as a consequence of the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation of tropical lands. Here, we present numerical simulations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the next few hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years for various patterns of fossil-fuel consumption and land use. The computer model predicts that atmospheric CO2 concentrations could exceed 2000 ppm (parts per million) within the next few centuries if we consume most of the available fossil fuel and if the current trend toward deforestation continues. This prediction is relatively insensitive to the future rate of fossil-fuel-burning unless the consumption rate is several times lower than the present rate. Conserving existing forests or planting new ones might lower the peak CO2 level by a factor of 2 if CO2 fertilization of plant growth is effective in natural settings and if soil carbon storage does not decrease as the global climate warms. The model also predicts that most of the anthropogenic CO2 will be removed within the next 5000 to 10,000 years, but that more than a million years will pass before atmospheric CO2 returns to its original, reindustrial value.
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Kasting, J.F.D., Walker, J.C.G. (1993). Long-Term Effects of Fossil-Fuel-Burning and Deforestation on Levels of Atmospheric CO2 . In: Oremland, R.S. (eds) Biogeochemistry of Global Change. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-2812-8_8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-2812-8_8
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