Aggregate Letter Traffic Demand in the United Kingdom and the Economy
The prospect of a dramatic fall in letter traffic levels has been a constant theme in the discussion of the mail market for several years. The development of electronic data interchange, fax, and a host of other electronically based means of communication have been seen as posing a fundamental and, ultimately, decisive threat to communication by letter. So far, however, the trend in letter volumes has remained upwards. As table 1 shows, average annual growth rates in domestic postal traffic through the 1980s were quite rapid in most developed countries. The highest rates of increase were found in France, the United Kingdom and the United States at over 4% per annum, and in none of these major economies did total volumes come close to remaining static, let alone showing signs of decline.
KeywordsUnit Root Error Correction Model Average Annual Growth Rate Electronic Data Interchange Total Traffic
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