This chapter briefly describes two applications of one general concept. The idea is to capture expert judgment on a computer. Experts are asked to make numerous judgments. These are recorded on a computer in the form of either a mathematical model (bootstrapping) or as a rule-base (expert system). The advantage of this approach is that it can minimize some of the inconsistency typical of repeated human information processing (HIPS). The expertise once captured can be easily copied; furthermore, repeat judgments will be easier. The expertise will be available for a wider range of situations, particularly inhospitable ones. Also, the judgments will be in a convenient form for detailed analysis by, say, students. The concept is attractive to forecasters because it combines human judgment with the rigors of computer modeling. However, it is not easy to extract the expertise from humans.
KeywordsSingle Mother Expert Judgment Political Risk Human Information Processing Numerous Judgment
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