Skip to main content

Abstract

The estimation of the life expectancy of a structure is not a simple task. Many factors affect the life of a structure. These factors include design parameters, design safety factors, design methods, type of structure, structural details, materials, construction methods and quality, loads, maintenance practices, inspection methods, and other environmental factors. These factors have different types of uncertainty associated with them. Generally, these factors have the following types of uncertainty: (1) physical randomness in magnitude and time of occurrence, (2) statistical uncertainties due to using limited amount of information in estimating the characteristics of the population, (3) model uncertainties due to approximations in the prediction models, and (4) vagueness in the definition of various factors and their effect on life. Therefore, the estimation of life expectancy is a complex process.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 299.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 379.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 379.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Ang, A. H.-S., and W. H. Tang (1984). Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, Vol. 2: Decision, Risk and Reliability. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anus, B. M., and G. I. White (1987). Reliability Analysis of the Island-Class Patrol Boat. Report. Avery Point, Connecticut: U.S. Coast Guard R&D Center.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anus, B. M., and G. I. White (1988). Life Expectancy Assessment and Durability of the Island-Class Patrol Boat Hull Structure. Report. Avery Point, Connecticut: U.S. Coast Guard R&D Center.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anus, B. M., G. I. White, and E. S. Purcell (1989). Estimation of structural service life of ships. Naval Engineers Journal 101(3):156–166.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anus, B. M., G. I. White, T. F. Bell-Wright, and E. S. Purcell (1990). Reliability-Based Comparative Life Expectancy Assessment of Patrol Boat Hull Structures. Report No. CG-D-02–90. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Transportation.

    Google Scholar 

  • De Kraker, A., J. W. Tichler, and A. C. W. M. Vrouwenvelder (1982). Safety, Reliability and Service Life of Structures. Delft, the Netherlands: Department of Civil Engineering, Delft University of Technology.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hughes, O. E (1981). Design of laterally loaded plating—uniform pressure loads. SNAME Journal of Ship Research 25(2):77–89.

    Google Scholar 

  • Purcell, E. S., S. J. Allen, and R. J. Walker (1988). Structural analysis of the U.S. Coast Guard island-class patrol boat. SNAME Transactions 96(7):1–23.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schumacher, M. (1979). Seawater Corrosion Handbook. New Jersey: Noyes Data Corporation.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tallin, A., E Kirkimo, and H. Madsen (1988). Probabilistic fatigue crack growth analysis with reliability updating. In: Proceedings of 5th ASCE Specialty Conference on Probabilisitic Methods in Civil Engineering. New York: American Society of Civil Engineers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thoft-Christensen, P., and Y. Murotsu (1985). Applications of Structural Systems Reliability Theory. New York: Springer-Verlag.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yazdani, N., and P. Albrecht (1987). Risk analysis of fatigue failure of highway bridges. ASCE Journal of Structural Engineering 113(3):483–500.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yazdani, N., and P. Albrecht (1990). Probabilistic fracture mechanics applications to bridges. Engineering Fracture Mechanics 77(5):769–785.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1995 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Ayyub, B.M., White, G.J. (1995). Probability-based life Prediction. In: Sundararajan, C. (eds) Probabilistic Structural Mechanics Handbook. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-1771-9_18

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-1771-9_18

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA

  • Print ISBN: 978-1-4613-5713-1

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-4615-1771-9

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics