Forecasting the Future of the Soviet Union

Abstract

In this chapter we report on a study carried out in May of 1990 which uses the AHP to determine the future of the Soviet Union. This question has been of utmost importance to every person alive because of the Soviet Union’s implicit and explicit influence on the future of the world. This work is an attempt to project the outcome of the various forces at work within and outside the Soviet Union that were thought to affect its destiny. Three different scenarios were formulated as possible outcomes. The purpose was not just to predict the future, but to develop a framework where variables involved in this complex problem could be identified, the effect of these variables on shaping the future could be evaluated, and the overall outcomes from these events could be derived. The hope is for identifying some actions to be taken to facilitate the way to peace, to avoid unnecessary violence, and to formulate intelligent and consistent policies.