Electronic Commerce and the Information Highway

Abstract

What probably strikes most readers of recent policy documents discussing the subject of electronic commerce and the information highway is the extent of the expectations business people and policy-makers have with respect to the expected growth impact of such new forms of electronic, interactive, digital commerce, particularly when compared to the current, limited, occurrence of the phenomenon. There is probably no area where, considering the relatively limited technological improvements still required, the gap between the current phenomenon and expected future use is as large as in the case of electronic commerce. For instance, Figure 1 illustrates the Internet growth forecast in Europe for the period 1998–2001 in terms of on-line population and Internet revenues. While the growth in penetration rate is substantial, a threefold increase over the next three years, the forecast growth in revenues is staggering: from just over $1 billion in 1998 to $64 billion in 2001. By comparison, U.S. revenues are estimated at more than $200 billion in 2001.