Abstract
There are intergenerational continuities in contemporary fertility, mortality and partnership behaviors due to genetic and environmental factors. If persistent, these would be expected over time to lead to a proportionate increase in those with a higher than average propensity to reproduce, and consequently to lead to higher population growth (or lower decline) than would otherwise be the case. We use three scenarios of fertility transmission to investigate the differences in long run population dynamics under models of intergenerationally correlated fertility and partnership behaviors:
-
(1)
fertility is not heritable;
-
(2)
daughters’ fertility is partly correlated with mother’s fertility;
-
(3)
daughters have the same fertility propensity (fecundability) as their mothers.
Keywords
- contemporary population dynamics
- Fisher’s fundamental theorem
- intergenerational fertility transmission
- microsimulation
- long term population trends
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Barrett, J.C. (1971). A Monte Carlo simulation of reproduction. In W. Brass (Ed.), Biological aspects of demography. Symposia of the Society for the Study of Human Biology Vol. 10 (pp. 11–30). London: Taylor and Francis.
Bongaarts, J., & Potter, R.G. (1983). Fertility, biology, and behavior: An analysis ofthe proximate determinants. New York: Academic Press.
Boyce M. S. (1990) The Red Queen visits sage grouse leks. American Zoologist, 30, 263–70.
Cavalli-Sforza, L. L., & Bodmer, W. F. (1971). The genet ics ofhuman populations. San Francisco: W. H. Freeman.
Charlesworth, B. (1980). Evolution in Age-Structured Populations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Council of Europe. (2001). Recent demographic development in Europe (2001). Strasbourg: Council of Europe.
Dunne, M.P., Martin, N.G., Staham, D.J., Sltske, S. W., Dinwiddie, S.H., Bucholz, K.K., Madden, P.A., & Heath, A.C. (1997). Genetic and environmental contributions to variance in age at first sexual intercourse. Psychological Science, 8, 211–216.
Edwards, A.W.F. (1994). The fundamental theorem of natural selection. Biological Reviews, 69, 443–74.
Fisher, R. A. (1930). The genetical theory ofnatural selection. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Foster, C. (2000). The limits to low fertility: a biosocial approach. Population and Development Review, 26, 209–234.
Frank, S. A. (1998). Foundations ofsocial evolution. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Gam, S. M. (1980). Continuities and change in maturational timing. In O. G. J. Brim, & J. Kagan (Eds.) Constancy and Change in Human Development (pp 113–162). Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press..
Gini, C. (1924). Premieres recherces sur la fecondabilite de la femme. Proceedings of Mathematical Congress, Toronto, 889–92.
Hammel, E.A., Mason, C., & Wachter, K.W. (1990). SOCSIM II, a sociodemographic microsimulation program, rev. 1.0, operating manual: Graduate Group in Demography Working Paper No. 29. Berkeley, Calif: University of California, Institute of International Studies, Program in Population Research.
Henry, L. (1961). Some data on natural fertility. Eugenics Quarterly, 8, 81–91.
Keyfitz, N. (1985). Applied Mathematical Demography. (2nd ed.). New York: Springer-Verlag.
Kirk K.M., Blomberg, S.P., Duffy, D.L., Heath, A.C., Owens, I.P.F, & Martin, N.G. (2001). Natural selection and quantitative genetics of life-history traits in Western women: a twin study. Evolution, 55, 423–35.
Kohler, H-P., Rodgers, J. L., & Christensen, K. (1999). Is fertility behavior in our genes? Findings from a Danish twin study. Population and Development Review, 25, 253–288.
Langford, C. M., & Wilson, C. (1985). Is there a connection between a woman’s fecundity and that of her mother? Journal of Biosocial Science, 17, 437–443.
Leridon, H. (1977). Human Fertility: The Basic Components (translated by J. F. Helzner). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Levine, D. (1982). ‘For their own reasons’: Individual marriage decisions and family life. Journal of Family History, 17, 255–264.
Lummaa, V., Haukioja, E., Lemmetyinen, R., & Pikkola, M. (1998). Natural selection on human twinning. Nature, 394, 533–534.
McGue, M., & Lykken, D. T. (1992). Genetic influence on risk of divorce. Psychological Science, 3, 368–373.
McLanahan, S.A., & Bumpass, L. (1988). Intergenerational consequences of family disruption. American Journal of Sociology, 94, 130–52.
Murphy, M. (1999). Is the relationship between fertility of parents and children really weak? Social Biology, 46, 122–145.
Murphy, M. (2001) Family and kinship networks in the context of aging societies. Paper prepared for the Conference on Population Ageing in the Industrialized Countries: Challenges and Responses organised by the Committee on Population Age Structures and Public Policy of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) and the Nihon University Population Research Institute (NUPRI), Tokyo, Japan, 19–21 March 2001.
Murphy, M., & Wang, D. (2001). Family-level continuities in childbearing in low-fertility societies. European Journal of Population, 17, 75–96.
Murphy, M., & Knudsen, L. B. (2002) The Relationship ofFull and Half Sibs, Birth Order and Gender with Fertility in Contemporary Denmark. Mimeo London: The London School of Economics.
Murphy, M., & Knudsen, L. B. (2002). The intergenerational transmission of fertility in contemporary Denmark: the effects of number of siblings (full and half), birth order, and whether male or female. Population Studies, in press.
Pearson, K., Lee, A., & Bramley-Moore, L. (1899). Mathematical contributions to the theory of evolution. VI — genetic (reproductive) selection: inheritance of fertility in man, and of fecundity in thoroughbred racehorses. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A192, 257–330.
Pomiankowski A., & Moller, A. (1995) A resolution of the lek paradox. Proceedings of the Royal Society (London) B, 260, 21–29.
Pope, H., & Mueller, C.W. (1976). The intergenerational transmission of marital instability: comparisons by race and sex. Journal of Family issues, 32, 49–66.
Price, G.R. (1972). Fisher’s ‘fundamental theorem’ made clear. Annals of Human Genetics, 365, 485–90.
Rodgers, J.L., & Doughty, D. (2000). Genetic and environmental influences on fertility expectations and outcomes using NLSY kinship data. In J. L. Rodgers, D. C. Rowe, & W. B. Miller (Eds.) Genetic influences on Human Fertility and Sexuality (pp. 85–105). Boston: Kluwer.
Rodgers, J. L., Hughes, K., Kohler, H.-P., Christensen, K., Doughty, D., Rowe, D.C., & Miller, W.B. (2001). Genetic influence helps explain variation in human fertility outcomes: evidence from recent behavioural and molecular genetic studies. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 10, 184–88.
Rodgers, J L., Kohler, H-P., Kyvik, K., & Christensen, K. (2001). Genes affect human fertility via fertility motivations: Findings from a contemporary Danish twin study. Demography, 38, 29–42.
Thornton, A. (1980). The influence of first generation fertility and economic status on second generation fertility. Population and Environment, 3, 51–72.
Ulizzi L., Astolfi, P., & Zonta, L.A. (1998). Natural selection in industrialized countries: a study of three generations of Italian newborns. Annals of Human Genetics, 62, 47–53.
Wachter K.W. (n.d.). Socsim Technical Documentation, available at http://www.demog.berkeley.edu/
Williams, L. A., & Williams, B. J. (1974). A re-examination of the heritability of fertility in the British peerage. Social Biology, 21, 225–231.
Wood J.W., & Weinstein, M. (1988). A model of age-specific fecundability. Population Studies, 42, 85–113.
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2003 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Murphy, M., Wang, D. (2003). The Impact of Intergenerationally-Transmitted Fertility and Nuptiality on Population Dynamics in Contemporary Populations. In: Rodgers, J.L., Kohler, HP. (eds) The Biodemography of Human Reproduction and Fertility. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-1137-3_11
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-1137-3_11
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-1-4613-5410-9
Online ISBN: 978-1-4615-1137-3
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive