Empirical Comparison of Lottery- and Rating-Based Preference Assessment
We investigate the performance of direct rating, probability equivalent, and lottery equivalent assessment techniques for a set of 41 individuals in terms of the ability of the techniques to reproduce indifference between two-criteria outcomes previously judged to be indifferent. To compare the performance before and after gaining familiarity with the techniques, we use data obtained both at the beginning and at the end of the interview sessions. The results show that the probability equivalent and lottery equivalent techniques performed no worse, and generally better than the rating technique. These results refute claims that lottery-based techniques are too complicated and too unrealistic compared to simpler techniques to be used in MCDA preference assessment. The results also show that all three techniques performed better when using data obtained at the end of the session—after the individuals gained familiarity with the techniques—and that the relatively complex lottery equivalent technique performed as well as the other techniques when using data obtained at the end of the session.
Key wordsPreference assessment Rating Probability equivalent Lottery equivalent
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