Summary
Recent empirical studies have found that traditional present value models do not adequately represent the process that underlies changes in farmland market prices. We briefly review the existing economic literature on land pricing and then develop a more specific analysis of land prices under uncertainty using a real option approach to valuation. Using the model, we illustrate the effects on farmland prices of factors that represent the major sources of investor uncertainty.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Aiyagari S.R. (1993), Explaining Financial Market Facts: The Importance of Incomplete Markets and Transaction Costs, Quarterly Review, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, 17: 17–31.
Alston J.M. (1986), An Analysis of Growth of U. S. Farmland Prices, 1963–82, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 68: 1–9.
Bjomson B. - Innes R. (1992), Another Look at Returns to Agricultural and Nonagricultural Assets, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 74: 109–119.
Burt O.R. (1986), Econometric Modeling of the Capitalization Formula for Farmland Prices, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 68: 10–26.
Campbell J.Y. - Shiller R.J. (1987), Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models, Journal of Political Economy, 95: 1062–1088.
Chavas J.P. - Thomas A. (1999), A Dynamic Analysis of Land Prices, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 81: 772–784.
Clark J.S. - Fulton M. - Scott J.T.jr. (1993), The Inconsistency of Land Values, Land Rents, and Capitalization Formulas, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 75: 147–155.
Copeland T. - Weston J. (1988), Financial Theory and Corporate Policy, Addison-Wesley, Reading, Mass.
Dixit A.K. - Pindyck R.S. (1996), Investment Under Uncertainty, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
Dixit A.K. (1992), Investment and Hysteresis, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 6: 107–132.
Falk B. (1991), Formally Testing the Present Value Models of Farmland Prices, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 73: 1–10.
Falk B. - Lee B.S. (1998), Fads versus Fundamentals in Farmland Prices, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 80: 696–707.
Featherstone A.M. - Baker T.G. (1987), An Examination of Farm Sector Real Asset Dynamics, 1910–85, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 69: 532–546.
Hanson S.D. - Myers R.J. (1995), Testing for a Time-Varying Risk Premium in the Returns to Farmland, Journal of Empirical Finance, 2: 265–276.
Just R.E. - Miranowski J.A. (1993), Understanding Farmland Price Changes, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 75: 156–168.
Lence S.H. - Miller D.J. (1999), Transaction Costs and the Present Value of Farmland: Iowa, 1900–1994, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 81: 257–272.
Luttmer E.G.J. (1996), Asset Pricing in Economies with Frictions, Econometrica, 64: 1439–1467.
Pope R.D. - Kramer R.A. - Green R.D. - Gardner B.D. (1979), An Evaluation of Econometric Models of U. S. Farmland Prices, Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, 4: 107–119.
Trigeorgis L. (1997), Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation, The MTT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Turvey C. (1999), Real Options and Agricultural Land Values, Paper presented at the NC-221 Regional Research Group meeting, Ontario, Canada, October.
Weersink A. - Turvey C. - Clark S. - Sarkar R. (1999), The Effects of Agricultural Policy on Farmland Values, Land Economics, 75: 425–439.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2002 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Pederson, G.D., Khitarishvili, T. (2002). Analysis of Land Prices under Uncertainty: A Real Option Valuation Approach. In: Canavari, M., Caggiati, P., Easter, K.W. (eds) Economic Studies on Food, Agriculture, and the Environment. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-0609-6_9
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-0609-6_9
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-1-4613-5156-6
Online ISBN: 978-1-4615-0609-6
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive