Advertisement

Climate Change Expectations in the Next Half Century of Turkey

  • Sevinc SirdasEmail author
  • Zekâi Şen
  • Ahmet Öztopal
Chapter

Abstract

Turkey as one of the mid-latitude countries in sub-tropical climate belt of the world has a special location meteoro-hydrologically. Various air mass movements display their impacts over Turkey’s air, weather, and climate situations on a daily, monthly, or yearly base. Such a meteorologically interactive region is expected to have climate change signature variations as a result of various air movements in the future. A set of values from over three decades of observed temperatures, records from two overlapping periods 1960–1990 and 1970–2000 based on the records from the 30 years in the past, are taken. The basic time duration between 1960 and 1990 displays the actions as observed in the regular time period in the world. This time is considered as a base to determine the state of future temp changes. This study avoids statistical comparisons based on arithmetic averages and standard deviations; instead it adopts a method of interpreting the changes over the last three decades based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for different time intervals (5-, 10-, and 50-year). In this work, after establishing a special downscaling methodology, different General Climate Model results are coupled with local variables and following the verification and validation with measured data from almost 300 spatially distributed monthly temperature data, the significance of climate change impact is presented with relevant interpretations. The above explanations note that the greatest change in the last 40 years in terms of temperature is more visible in the highest temperatures rather than the average and lowest temperatures. Generally speaking, because the highest heats are observed in summer times (less rainfall month), one may conclude that there is rise in the number of drought incidents in these times in Istanbul and different cities of Turkey.

Keywords

Climate change Temperature Precipitation Runoff Downscaling Scenario SRES Turkey 

Nomenclature

ZP

The meteorological variable to be estimated in the station

Zi

The adjacent meteorological variable values

Wi

The weight of the i-th station

WT

The sum of the weight coefficients of all stations

VE

The mean square errors

ZT

Any estimate of the random distribution of a point

Greek Symbols

Σ

Summation function

αi

The weight coefficients

Acronyms

GCM

General Circulation Model

SRES

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

WMO

World Meteorological Organization

UNESCO

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

IPCC-AR4

Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Assessment Report 4

EEA

European Environment Agency

UNFCCC

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

CCIS

Canadian Institute for Climate Studies

EH40PYC

Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

HadCM

Hadley Centre Coupled Model

NCAR

National Center for Atmospheric Research

CCCMA

Canadian Coupled Climate Model and Analysis

RDF

Regional Dependence Function

CSV

Cumulative Semi-Variogram

PCSV

Point Cumulative Semi-Variogram

TAR WG3

Third Assessment Report Working Group 3

SCM

Successive Corrections Method

References

  1. 1.
    IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate changeGoogle Scholar
  2. 2.
    IPCC (2007) Climate change: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  3. 3.
    Nicholls N, Gruza GV, Jouzel J, Karl TR, Ogallo LA, Parker DE (1996) Observed climate variability and change. In: Houghton JT, Filho LGM, Callander BA, Harris N, Kattenberg A, Maskell K (eds) Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 133–192Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    Maheras P, Kolyva-Machera F (1990) Temporal and spatial characteristics of annual precipitation over Balkans in the twentieth century. J Climatol 10:495–504CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Bates BC, Kundzewicz ZW, Wu S, Palutikof JP (eds) (2008) IPCC technical paper VI - June. Geneva, IPCC Secretariat, 210 ppGoogle Scholar
  6. 6.
    Alcamo J, Florke M, Marker M (2007) Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socioeconomic and climatic change. Hydrolog Sci J 52:247–275CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. 7.
    Arnell NW (2004) Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio economic scenarios. Glob Environ Chang 14:31–52CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. 8.
    Lehner B, Czisch G, Vassolo S (2005) The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe:a model-based analysis. Energy Policy 33:839–855CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. 9.
    Lehner B, Döll P, Alcamo J, Henrichs H, Kaspar F (2006) Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks in Europe: a continental, integrated analysis. Clim Change 75:273–299CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. 10.
    Santos FD, Forbes K, Moita R (2002) Climate change in Portugal: scenarios, impacts and adaptation measures. SIAM study report. Gradiva, Lisbon, Portugal, 456 ppGoogle Scholar
  11. 11.
    Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (2007) Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 996 ppGoogle Scholar
  12. 12.
    Knutti R, Hegerl GC (2008) The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth’s temperature to radiation changes. Nat Geosci 1:735–743CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. 13.
    Hannart A, Dufresne JL, Naveau P (2009) Why climate sensitivity may not be so unpredictable. Geophys Res Lett 36, L16707CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. 14.
    Baker MB, Roe GH (2009) The shape of things to come: why is climate change so predictable? J Climatol 22:4574–4589CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. 15.
    Jarvis AJ, Leeda DT, Hewitt CN (2012) Climate–society feedbacks and the avoidance of dangerous climate change. Nat Clim Change 2:668–671Google Scholar
  16. 16.
    Rohling EJ, Rohling EJ, Sluijs A, Dijkstra HA, Köhler P, van de Wal RSW, von der Heydt AS, Beerling DJ, Berger A, Bijl PK, Crucifix M, DeConto R, Drijfhout SS, Fedorov A, Foster GL, Ganopolski A, Hansen J, Hönisch B, Hooghiemstra H, Huber M, Huybers P, Knutti R, Lea DW, Lourens LJ, Lunt D, Masson-Demotte V, Medina-Elizalde M, Otto-Bliesner B, Pagani M, Pälike H, Renssen H, Royer DL, Siddall M, Valdes P, Zachos JC, Zeebe RE (2012) Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature 491(7426):683CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. 17.
    EEA (2012) Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012. (EEA Report No 12/2012). European Environment Agency, Copenhagen. http://www.eea.europa.eu/
  18. 18.
    Lynch P (2007) The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling. J Comput Phys 227(2008):3431–3444MathSciNetGoogle Scholar
  19. 19.
    Bayraktar H, Turaliglu FS, Sen Z (2005) The estimation of average areal rainfall by percentage weighting polygon method in tn Southeastern Anatolia Region, Turkey. Atmos Res 73(1–2):149–160CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. 20.
    Sirdas S (2002) Meteorological drought modeling and application to Turkey. Ph.D. Dissertation, İstanbul Technical UniversityGoogle Scholar
  21. 21.
    Sirdas S, Sen Z (2003) Spatio-temporal drought analysis to the Trakya region, Turkey. Hydrolog Sci J 28:809–821CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. 22.
    Erinc S (1957) Tatbiki Klimatoloji ve Türkiye İklimi. İ.T.Ü. Hidrojeoloji Enstitüsü, IstanbulGoogle Scholar
  23. 23.
    Ceylan A (2009) Drought management plan for Ankara, Turkey. WMO Newsletter MeteoWorld June 2009Google Scholar
  24. 24.
    Nakićenović N, Swart R (eds) (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios: a special report of working group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 0-521-80081-1Google Scholar
  25. 25.
    IPCC TAR WG3 (2001) Climate change 2001: mitigation. In: Metz B, Davidson O, Swart R, Pan J (eds) contribution of working group III to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 0-521-80769-7Google Scholar
  26. 26.
    Şen Z (2009) Spatial modeling principles in earth sciences. Springer, Dordrecht, 351 ppGoogle Scholar
  27. 27.
    Sen Z (2009) Precipitation downscaling in climate modeling using a spatial dependence function. Int J Glob Warm 1(1–3):29–42CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. 28.
    Şen Z (1974) Small sample properties of stationary stochastic processes and the Hurst phenomenon in hydrology. Unpublished Ph.D. Thesis, Imperial College of Science and Technology, 256 ppGoogle Scholar
  29. 29.
    Şen Z (1989) Cumulative semivariogram model of regionalized variables. Int J Math Geol 21:891CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. 30.
    Şen Z, Öztopal A (2001) Genetic algorithms for the classification and prediction of precipitation occurreces. Hydrolog Sci J 46(2):255–267CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. 31.
    Gilchrist B, Cressman GP (1954) An experiment in objective analysis. Tellus 6:309–318CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. 32.
    Bergthorsson P, Döös BR (1955) Numerical weather map analysis. Tellus 7:329–340CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. 33.
    Şen Z, Habib Z (2000) Spatial analysis of monthly precipitation in Turkey. Theor Appl Climatol 67:81–96CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. 34.
    Cressman GP (1959) An operational objective analysis system. Mon Weather Rev 87:367–374CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. 35.
    Goodin WR, McRea GJ, Seinfeld JH (1979) A comparison of interpolation methods for sparse data: application to wind and concentration fields. J Appl Meteor 18:761–771CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. 36.
    Koch SE, DesJardins M, Kocin PJ (1983) An iterative Barnes objective map analysis scheme for use with satellite and conventional data. J Appl Meteor 22:1487–1503CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. 37.
    Thiebaux HJ, Pedder MA (1987) Spatial objective analysis. Academic, San Diego, CA, 299 ppGoogle Scholar
  38. 38.
    Barnes SL (1964) A technique for maximizing details in numerical weather map analysis. J Appl Meteor 3:396–409CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. 39.
    World Meteorological Organization (2011) WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2010, World Meteorological Organization (WMO).Google Scholar
  40. 40.
    Tayanç M, Im U, Dogruel M, Karaca M (2009) Climate change in Turkey for the last half century. Clim Change 94:483–502. doi: 10.1007/s10584-008-9511-0 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. 41.
    Türkeş M (1998) Influence of geopotential heights, cyclone frequency and Southern Oscillation on rainfall variations in Turkey. Int J Climatol 18:649–680CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. 42.
    Türkeş M (1999) Vulnerability of Turkey to desertification with respect to precipitation and aridity conditions. Turk J Eng Environ Sci 23:363–380Google Scholar
  43. 43.
    Şen Z, Uyumaz A, Öztopal A, Cebeci M, Küçükmehmetoğlu M, Erdik T, SirdaS S, Şahin AD, Geymen A, Ceylan V, Oğuz S, Karsavran Y (2010) Final report on the impacts of climate change on İstanbul and Turkey water resources. İSKİ Project, 552 pp.Google Scholar
  44. 44.
  45. 45.
  46. 46.
  47. 47.

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Meteorological Engineering, Faculty of Aeronautics and AstronauticsIstanbul Technical UniversityIstanbulTurkiye
  2. 2.Hydraulics and Water Resources Division, Civil Engineering FacultyIstanbul Technical UniversityIstanbulTurkiye

Personalised recommendations