Climate Change Expectations in the Next Half Century of Turkey

  • Sevinc SirdasEmail author
  • Zekâi Şen
  • Ahmet Öztopal


Turkey as one of the mid-latitude countries in sub-tropical climate belt of the world has a special location meteoro-hydrologically. Various air mass movements display their impacts over Turkey’s air, weather, and climate situations on a daily, monthly, or yearly base. Such a meteorologically interactive region is expected to have climate change signature variations as a result of various air movements in the future. A set of values from over three decades of observed temperatures, records from two overlapping periods 1960–1990 and 1970–2000 based on the records from the 30 years in the past, are taken. The basic time duration between 1960 and 1990 displays the actions as observed in the regular time period in the world. This time is considered as a base to determine the state of future temp changes. This study avoids statistical comparisons based on arithmetic averages and standard deviations; instead it adopts a method of interpreting the changes over the last three decades based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for different time intervals (5-, 10-, and 50-year). In this work, after establishing a special downscaling methodology, different General Climate Model results are coupled with local variables and following the verification and validation with measured data from almost 300 spatially distributed monthly temperature data, the significance of climate change impact is presented with relevant interpretations. The above explanations note that the greatest change in the last 40 years in terms of temperature is more visible in the highest temperatures rather than the average and lowest temperatures. Generally speaking, because the highest heats are observed in summer times (less rainfall month), one may conclude that there is rise in the number of drought incidents in these times in Istanbul and different cities of Turkey.


Climate change Temperature Precipitation Runoff Downscaling Scenario SRES Turkey 



The meteorological variable to be estimated in the station


The adjacent meteorological variable values


The weight of the i-th station


The sum of the weight coefficients of all stations


The mean square errors


Any estimate of the random distribution of a point

Greek Symbols


Summation function


The weight coefficients



General Circulation Model


Special Report on Emissions Scenarios


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change


World Meteorological Organization


United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization


Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Assessment Report 4


European Environment Agency


United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change


Canadian Institute for Climate Studies


Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology


Hadley Centre Coupled Model


National Center for Atmospheric Research


Canadian Coupled Climate Model and Analysis


Regional Dependence Function


Cumulative Semi-Variogram


Point Cumulative Semi-Variogram


Third Assessment Report Working Group 3


Successive Corrections Method


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Meteorological Engineering, Faculty of Aeronautics and AstronauticsIstanbul Technical UniversityIstanbulTurkiye
  2. 2.Hydraulics and Water Resources Division, Civil Engineering FacultyIstanbul Technical UniversityIstanbulTurkiye

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