Forecasting Tropical Storms in the Eastern Region of the United Arab Emirates: Lessons Learnt from Gonu
In 2007, a strong tropical storm in the Arabian Sea, Cyclone Gonu, caused major damages when it made landfall on the coast of the Sultanate of Oman. The Category 5 tropical storm moved north along the coast in the Gulf of Oman and reached the Eastern Coastline of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), causing loss of life and damage to property and infrastructure. It is therefore imperative to understand the probability of such storms hitting the region in the future, to take necessary measures and preparations to reduce the impact. This study is important for understanding the feasibility of developing infrastructure to withstand tropical storms, managing the coast, and also evaluating risks of the damages. This study looks at meteorological statistical data from past decades in the region to understand the probability of strong tropical storms causing damage in the Eastern Coast of the UAE. It uses statistical analysis to predict tropical storms that are strong enough to reach the Eastern Coast of the UAE, which is situated along the Gulf of Oman, to the north of the Arabian Sea, which is not usually affected by tropical storms coming from the Indian Ocean. The study looks into historical meteorological data of the region, from temperatures, wind speed, and direction, and then compares them during the time Cyclone Gonu hit the region.
KeywordsClimate change Storm forecasting Gonu Storm surges Tropical storms The United Arab Emirates Peninsula Probability Cyclone Phytoplankton Bloom Oceanographic
It is the pleasure to extend the gratitude to the National Center of Meteorology and Seismology in the UAE and Fujairah Airport for the information, data, and cooperation provided that was the basis of the statistical study made in this report.
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