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Trend Analysis of Rainfall in North Cyprus

  • Rahme Seyhun
  • Bertuğ AkıntuğEmail author
Chapter

Abstract

Cyprus, as the third largest island in the Mediterranean Sea, is located at the South of Turkey and the West of Syria and Lebanon. With a semiarid climate, rainfall is the only source of water in the island. Therefore, changes in rainfall regime directly affect the water resource management and ecosystem in the island. In order to improve water management strategies, it is vital to investigate the changes in the rainfall pattern. In this study, a nonparametric Mann–Kendall rank correlation method is employed to identify the existence of a linear trend in annual and monthly rainfall series. After application of homogeneity test and filling in missing data, this method is applied to the observed rainfall data from 20 rain-gauge stations that are located in the northern part of the island for the period of 1978–2009. The results show that there is no significant trend in the annual rainfall; however, upward trends in September rainfall and downward trends in March rainfall have been observed in most of the stations. This indicates that there are no significant changes in annual total rainfall; however, there is a shift in monthly rainfall regime.

Keywords

Rainfall trend analysis Mann–Kendall test North Cyprus 

Nomenclature

a

Most probable time point of change or the last time point of the sub-series with mean \( \overline{{{z_1}}} \)

d

Distance from the location of gauged station to the ungauged station

Ho

Null hypotheses

H1

Alternative hypotheses

k

Total number of reference stations

n

Length of the data set

N

Number of surrounding stations

Px

Estimate of rainfall for the ungauged station

p

Rainfall values of rain gauges used for estimation

Qi

Difference and ratio between the candidate and reference series at time step i

Q

Mean values of Q i series

S

Mann–Kendall test statistic

T

Standard normal homogeneity test statistic

t

Number of ties of extent

Vj

Square of the correlation coefficient between the candidate and a reference station

Xji

Reference series (the jth of a total of k)

\( \overline{{{X_j}}} \)

Mean values of the X series

xi

Data values at times i

xj

Data values at times j

Yi

Candidate series at year i (or other time unit)

\( \overline{Y} \)

Mean values of Y series

Zi

Standardized series with zero mean and unit standard deviation

\( \overline{{{z_1}}} \)

Averages of the \( {Z_i} \) sequences before the shift

\( \overline{{{z_2}}} \)

Averages of the \( {Z_i} \) sequences after the shift

Z

Standardized test statistic

Greek Symbols

Σ

Summation function

\( {\mu_1} \)

Theoretical mean level of standardized differences (or ratios) before a possible shift or trend

\( {\mu_2} \)

Theoretical mean level of standardized differences (or ratios) after a possible shift or trend

σQ

Standard deviation of the Qi series

Acronyms

SNHT

Standard normal homogeneity test

Var(s)

Variance of s

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Middle East Technical UniversityMersinTurkey

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