Modeling the Impact of New HIV Prevention Technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • John Stover
  • Carel Pretorius
  • Kyeen Andersson
Part of the International Series in Operations Research & Management Science book series (ISOR, volume 190)


Research has shown that several new technologies can be effective in reducing the transmission of HIV infection. Male circumcision was shown to reduce susceptibility to new infection by about 60% in trials in 2005 and 2007. In 2009, a large scale trial of an HIV vaccine showed some protective benefits. Research results released in 2010 showed effectiveness of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis and topical pre-exposure prophylaxis at levels around 40%. When new technologies become available national policy makers are faced with questions about whether to implement them, how much they will cost and how they should be implemented. Funders face similar questions. We have developed computer models to aid in policy development and planning. These models are intended to investigate questions such as “What will the impact be in terms of infections averted?”, “How much would a new program cost?”, and “Would the new program be cost-effective?” This chapter discusses models for male circumcision, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and HIV vaccines and their applications to inform policy makers.


Vaccination Program Inject Drug User Male Circumcision Coverage Level Risk Compensation 
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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Futures InstituteGlastonburyUSA

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