Abstract
Seasonal-to-decadal climate prediction seeks to quantify the likely evolution or change of the climate system over a specific time horizon of months to years. Climate predictions based on dynamical models incorporate all relevant processes to the extent possible, including anthropogenic climate change, but most importantly those processes that govern the likely evolution of natural climate variability.
This chapter was originally published as part of the Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology edited by Robert A. Meyers. DOI:10.1007/978-1-4419-0851-3
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Abbreviations
- Climatology:
-
Reference period used to describe the characteristics of the climate, such as the mean annual cycle, or the expected statistics of weather or of year-to-year climate variability. The World Meteorological Organization recommends the most recent three full decades; e.g., in 2009, the WMO climatology period would cover 1971– 2000.
- External forcing:
-
Factors that influence the climate system but are not explicitly driven by the climate system, such as human emissions of greenhouse gases, changes in the sun’s radiation, and volcanic emissions.
- Forecast:
-
The guidance offered by a forecaster or forecast center on the future climate conditions. A forecast could be based on a single prediction, but typically is a distilled product that involves recalibrated model predictions and often multiple prediction inputs.
- Internal variability:
-
The chaotic evolution of a fluid, such as the ocean or atmosphere, due to nonlinear dynamics that are sensitive to small uncertainties or variations in initial conditions. Depending on timescale, internal variability may refer to that generated internally to the atmosphere, to the ocean, or due to ocean–atmosphere interaction. It is the part of the seasonal-to-decadal climate that is not deterministically predictable.
- Prediction:
-
The future climate conditions indicated by a single prediction model, which could be statistical or dynamical. These differ from climate change projections in that information of the climate state at or near the initial time of the forecast is highly relevant to its future evolution.
- Teleconnections:
-
Climate variability in one region that is driven remotely by climate variability in another region. This typically refers to regional patterns of climate anomalies over land and/or oceans that result from specific ocean phenomena, such as during El Niño events.
Bibliography
Primary Literature
Stockdale TN, Alves O, Boer G, Deque M, Ding Y, Kumar A, Kumar K, Landman W, Mason S, Nobre P (2010) Understanding and predicting seasonal-to-interannual climate variability – the producer perspective. Procedia Environ Sci 1:55–80
Meehl GA, Goddard L, Murphy J, Stouffer RJ, Boer G, Danabasoglu G, Dixon K, Giorgetta MA, Greene AM, Hawkins E, Hegerl G, Karoly D, Keenlyside N, Kimoto M, Kirtman B, Navarra A, Pulwarty RS, Smith D, Stammer D, Stockdale T (2009) Decadal prediction: can it be skillful? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90:1467–1485
Smith D, Cusack S, Colman A, Folland C, Harris G, Murphy J (2007) Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global circulation model. Science 317:796–799
Keenlyside NS, Latif M, Jungclaus J, Kornblueh L, Roeckner E (2008) Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature 453:84–88
Pohlmann H, Jungclaus JH, Köhl A, Stammer D, Marotzke J (2009) Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis: effects on the North Atlantic. J Clim 22:3926–3938
Seager R, Ting M, Held I, Kushnir Y, Lu J, Vecchi G, Huang H-P, Harnik N, Leetmaa A, Lau N-C, Li C, Velez J, Naik N (2007) Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science 316:1181–1184
Stott PA, Stone DA, Allen MR (2004) Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature 432:610–614
Trenberth KE, Shea DJ (2006) Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005. Geophys Res Lett 33:L12704
NRC (2010) Assessment of intraseasonal to interannual climate prediction and predictability. The National Academies, Washington, DC
Orlove B, Chiang J, Cane M (2000) Forecasting Andean rainfall and crop yield from the influence of El Nino on Pleiades visibility. Nature 403:68–71
Walker GS (1923) Correlations in seasonal variations of weather, VIII: a preliminary study of world weather. Mem India Meteorol Dep 24:75–131
Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1987) Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 115:1606–1626
Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1989) Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the southern oscillation. J Clim 2:268–284
Mason SJ, Goddard L (2001) Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82:619–638
Bjerknes J (1969) Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon Weather Rev 97:163–172
Wyrtki K (1975) El Niño – the dynamic response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to atmospheric forcing. J Phys Oceanogr 5:572–584
Zebiak S, Cane MA (1987) A model of El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 115:2262–2278
Battisti DS (1988) Dynamics and thermodynamics of a warming event in a coupled tropical atmosphere–ocean model. J Atmos Sci 45:2889–2919
Suarez Max J, Schopf Paul S (1988) A delayed action oscillator for ENSO. J Atmos Sci 45:3283–3287
Cane MA, Zebiak SE, Dolan SC (1986) Experimental forecasts of El Niño. Nature 321:827–832
Graham NE (1994) Decadal-scale climate variability in the tropical and North Pacific during the 1970s and 1980s: observations and model results. Clim Dyn 10:135–162
Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on Salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:1069–1079
Hurrell JW, Van Loon H (1997) Decadal variations in climate associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Clim Change 36:301–326
Goldenberg SB, Landsea CW, Mestas-Nunez AM, Gray WM (2001) The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: causes and implications. Science 293:474–479
Latif M, Barnett TP (1994) Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America. Science 266:634–637
Griffies SM, Bryan K (1997) Predictability of North Atlantic multidecadal climate variability. Science 275:181–184
IPCC (2007) Contribution of working group 1 to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change; Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Vera C, Barange M, Dube OP, Goddard L, Griggs D, Kobysheva N, Odada E, Parey S, Polovina J, Poveda G (2010) Needs assessment for climate information on decadal timescales and longer. Procedia Environ Sci 1:275–286
Knight JR, Folland CK, Scaife AA (2006) Climate impacts of the atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 33:L17706
Zhang R, Delworth TL (2006) Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophys Res Lett 33:L17712
Schubert S, Gutzler D, Wang H, Dai A, Delworth T, Deser C, Findell K, Fu R, Higgins W, Hoerling M, Kirtman B, Koster R, Kumar A, Legler D, Lettenmaier D, Lyon B, Magana V, Mo K, Nigam S, Pegion P, Phillips A, Pulwarty R, Rind D, Ruiz-Barradas A, Schemm J, Seager R, Stewart R, Suarez M, Syktus J, Ting M, Wang C, Weaver S, Zeng N (2009) A U.S. CLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to drought-related sst forcing patterns: overview and results. J Clim 22:5251–5272
Lau N-C, Nath MJ (2003) Atmosphere–ocean variations in the Indo-Pacific sector during ENSO episodes. J Clim 16:3–20
Xie S-P, Carton JA (2004) Tropical Atlantic variability: patterns, mechanisms, and impacts. Geophys Monogr 147:121–142
Giannini A, Chiang JCH, Cane MA, Kushnir Y, Seager R (2001) The ENSO teleconnection to the Tropical Atlantic Ocean: contributions of the remote and local SSTs to rainfall variability in the Tropical Americas. J Clim 14:4530–4544
Goddard L, Graham NE (1999) Importance of the Indian Ocean for simulating rainfall anomalies over eastern and southern Africa. J Geophys Res 104:19099–19116
Koster RD, Mahanama SPP, Yamada TJ, Balsamo G, Berg AA, Boisserie M, Dirmeyer PA, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Drewitt G, Gordon CT, Guo Z, Jeong J-H, Lawrence DM, Lee W-S, Li Z, Luo L, Malyshev S, Merryfield WJ, Seneviratne SI, Stanelle T, van den Hurk BJJM, Vitart F, Wood EF (2010) Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: first results from a multi-model experiment. Geophys Res Lett 37:L02402
Fischer EM, Seneviratne SI, Lüthi D, Schär C (2007) Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling to recent European summer heat waves. Geophys Res Lett 34:L06707
Cohen J, Fletcher C (2007) Improved skill of northern hemisphere winter surface temperature predictions based on land–atmosphere fall anomalies. J Clim 20:4118–4132
Jhun J-G, Lee E-J (2004) A New East Asian Winter Monsoon Index and associated characteristics of the winter monsoon. J Clim 17:711–726
Goddard L, Mason S (2002) Sensitivity of seasonal climate forecasts to persisted SST anomalies. Clim Dyn 19:619–632
Alexander MA, Bladé I, Newman M, Lanzante JR, Lau N-C, Scott JD (2002) The atmospheric bridge: the influence of ENSO teleconnections on air–sea interaction over the global oceans. J Clim 15:2205–2231
Jin F-F (1997) An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part I: conceptual model. J Atmos Sci 54:811–829
McPhaden MJ, Busalacchi AJ, Cheney R, Donguy J-R, Gage KS, Halpern D, Ji M, Julian P, Meyers G, Mitchum GT, Niiler PP, Picaut J, Reynolds RW, Smith N, Takeuchi K (1998) The tropical ocean-global atmosphere observing system: a decade of progress. J Geophys Res 103:14169–14240
Saha S, Nadiga S, Thiaw C, Wang J, Wang W, Zhang Q, Van den Dool HM, Pan H-L, Moorthi S, Behringer D, Stokes D, Peña M, Lord S, White G, Ebisuzaki W, Peng P, Xie P (2006) The NCEP climate forecast system. J Clim 19:3483–3517
Barnston AG, Chelliah M, Goldenberg SB (1997) Documentation of a highly ENSO-related SST region in the equatorial pacific. Atmos–Ocean 35:367–383
Larkin NK, Harrison DE (2005) On the definition of El Niño and associated seasonal average U.S. weather anomalies. Geophys Res Lett 32:L13705
Chen D, Cane MA, Kaplan A, Zebiak SE, Huang D (2004) Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years. Nature 428:733–736
Kirtman Ben P, Shukla J, Huang B, Zhu Z, Schneider Edwin K (1997) Multiseasonal predictions with a coupled tropical ocean global atmosphere system. Mon Weather Rev 125:789–808
Barnston AG, He Y, Glantz MH (1999) Predictive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models in SST forecasts during the 1997–98 El Niño Episode and the 1998 La Niña Onset. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80:217–243
Goddard L, DeWitt DG (2005) Seeking progress. In: El Niño Prediction, vol 3. US CLIVAR Variations
Davey M, Huddleston M, Sperber K, Braconnot P, Bryan F, Chen D, Colman R, Cooper C, Cubasch U, Delecluse P, DeWitt D, Fairhead L, Flato G, Gordon C, Hogan T, Ji M, Kimoto M, Kitoh A, Knutson T, Latif M, Le Treut H, Li T, Manabe S, Mechoso C, Power S, Roeckner E, Terray L, Vintzileos A, Voss R, Wang B, Washington W, Yoshikawa I, Yu J, Yukimoto S, Zebiak S, Meehl G (2002) STOIC: a study of coupled model climatology and variability in tropical ocean regions. Clim Dyn 18:403–420
Zhang S, Harrison MJ, Rosati A, Wittenberg A (2007) System design and evaluation of coupled ensemble data assimilation for global oceanic climate studies. Mon Weather Rev 135:3541–3564
Balmaseda MA, Fujii Y, Alves O, Awaji T, Behringer D, Ferry N, Lee T, Rienecker M, Rosati T, Stammer D, Smith D, Molteni F (2009) Initialization for seasonal and decadal forecasts. http://www.oceanobs09.net/blog/?p=57
Stockdale T, Anderson DLT, Balmaseda M, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Ferranti L, Mogensen K, Palmer TN, Molteni F, Vitart F (2011) ECMWF System 3 and its prediction of sea surface temperature. Clim Dyn. doi:s00382-010-0947-3/s00382-010-0947-3
Toth Z, Kalnay E (1993) Ensemble forecasting at NMC: the generation of perturbations. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 74:2317–2330
Molteni F, Buizza R, Palmer TN, Petroliagis T (1996) The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: methodology and validation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 122:73–119
Wilks DS (2006) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, vol 59, International geophysics series. Academic, San Diego
Goddard L, Hoerling MP (2006) Practices for seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. US CLIVAR variations, vol 4
Jin EK, Kinter JL, Wang B, Park C-K, Kang I-S, Kirtman BP, Kug J-S, Kumar A, Luo J-J, Schemm J, Shukla J, Yamagata T (2008) Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean–atmosphere models. Clim Dyn 31:647–664
Hagedorn R, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Palmer TN (2005) The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting – I. Basic concept. Tellus A 57:219–233
Rajagopalan B, Lall U, Zebiak SE (2002) Categorical climate forecasts through regularization and optimal combination of multiple GCM ensembles*. Mon Weather Rev 130:1792–1811
Robertson AW, Lall U, Zebiak SE, Goddard L (2004) Improved combination of multiple atmospheric GCM ensembles for seasonal prediction. Mon Weather Rev 132:2732–2744
Weigel AP, Liniger MA, Appenzeller C (2009) Seasonal ensemble forecasts: are recalibrated single models better than multimodels? Mon Weather Rev 137:1460–1479
NRC (ed) (2008) Review of CCSP draft synthesis and assessment product 5.3: decision-support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to interannual forecasts and observational data. The National Academies, Washington, DC
Robertson AW, Moron V, Swarinoto Y (2009) Seasonal predictability of daily rainfall statistics over Indramayu district, Indonesia. Int J Climatol 29:1449–1462
Gershunov A, Barnett TP (1998) ENSO influence on intraseasonal extreme rainfall and temperature frequencies in the contiguous United States: observations and model results. J Clim 11:1575–1586
Higgins RW, Leetmaa A, Kousky VE (2002) Relationships between climate variability and winter temperature extremes in the United States. J Clim 15:1555–1572
Joliffe IT, Stephenson DB (2003) Forecast verification: a practitioner’s guide in atmospheric sciences. Wiley, Chicester
WMO (2002) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Standardized verification system (SVS) for long-range forecasts (LRF) In: New attachment II-9 to the manual on the GDPS (WMO-N. 485), vol 1, Geneva
Livezey RE, Timofeyeva MM (2008) The first decade of long-lead U.S. seasonal forecasts. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 89:843–854
Goddard L, Dilley M (2005) El Niño: catastrophe or opportunity. J Clim 18:651–665
Gates WL (1992) AMIP: the atmospheric model intercomparison project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 73:1962–1970
Palmer TN, Shukla J (2000) DSP/PROVOST. Q J R Meteorol Soc 126:1989–2350, Special Issue
Palmer TN, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Hagedorn R, Alessandri A, Gualdi S, Andersen U, Feddersen H, Cantelaube P, Terres J-M, Davey M, Graham R, Délécluse P, Lazar A, Déqué M, Guérémy J-F, DÃez E, Orfila B, Hoshen M, Morse AP, Keenlyside N, Latif M, Maisonnave E, Rogel P, Marletto V, Thomson MC (2004) Development of a European multimodel ensemble prediction system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85:853–872
Hewitt CD, Griggs DJ (2004) Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. EOS 85:566
Kirtman B, Pirani A (2009) The state of the art of seasonal prediction: outcomes and recommendations from the First World Climate Research Program Workshop on seasonal prediction. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90:455–458
Power S, Casey T, Folland C, Colman A, Mehta V (1999) Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Clim Dyn 15:319–324
Alexander MA, Deser C, Timlin MS (1999) The reemergence of SST anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean. J Clim 12:2419–2433
Schneider N, Miller AJ (2001) Predicting Western North Pacific Ocean Climate. J Clim 14:3997–4002
Di Lorenzo E, Schneider N, Cobb KM, Franks PJS, Chhak K, Miller AJ, McWilliams JC, Bograd SJ, Arango H, Curchitser E, Powell TM, Rivière P (2008) North Pacific Gyre oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change. Geophys Res Lett 35:L08607
Deser C, Phillips AS, Hurrell JW (2004) Pacific Interdecadal climate variability: linkages between the Tropics and the North Pacific during Boreal Winter since 1900. J Clim 17:3109–3124
Meehl GA, Hu A (2006) Megadroughts in the Indian Monsoon Region and Southwest North America and a mechanism for associated multidecadal Pacific Sea surface temperature anomalies. J Clim 19:1605–1623
Knight JR, Allan RJ, Folland CK, Vellinga M, Mann ME (2005) A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate. Geophys Res Lett 32:L20708
Vellinga M, Wu P (2004) Low-latitude freshwater influence on centennial variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. J Clim 17:4498–4511
Latif M, Roeckner E, Botzet M, Esch M, Haak H, Hagemann S, Jungclaus J, Legutke S, Marsland S, Mikolajewicz U, Mitchell J (2004) Reconstructing, monitoring, and predicting multidecadal-scale changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation with sea surface temperature. J Clim 17:1605–1614
Stoner AMK, Hayhoe K, Wuebbles DJ (2009) Assessing general circulation model simulations of atmospheric teleconnection patterns. J Clim 22:4348–4372
AchutaRao K, Sperber KR (2006) ENSO simulation in coupled ocean–atmosphere models: are the current models better? Clim Dyn 27:1–15
Gray ST, Graumlich LJ, Betancourt JL, Pederson GT (2004) A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation since 1567 A.D. Geophys Res Lett 31:L12205
Davey M, and co-authors, 2006. Multi-model multi-method multi-decadal ocean analyses from the ENACT project. CLIVAR Exchanges, Vol 11, No. 3, pgs 22–25. http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/41286/1/Exchanges38.pdf
Collins M, Botzet M, Carril AF, Drange H, Jouzeau A, Latif M, Masina S, Otteraa OH, Pohlmann H, Sorteberg A, Sutton R, Terray L (2006) Interannual to decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic: a multimodel-ensemble study. J Clim 19:1195–1203
Branstator G, Teng H (2010) Two limits of initial-value decadal predictability in a CGCM. J Clim 23:6292–6311. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3678.1
Rodwell MJ, Drévillon M, Frankignoul C, Hurrell JW, Pohlmann H, Stendel M, Sutton RT (2004) North Atlantic forcing of climate and its uncertainty from a multi-model experiment. Q J R Meteorol Soc 130:2013–2032
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2011) Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ (2001) Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes. Science 294:581–584
Gottschalck J, Wheeler M, Weickmann K, Vitart F, Savage N, Lin H, Hendon H, Waliser D, Sperber K, Nakagawa M, Prestrelo C, Flatau M, Higgins W (2010) A framework for assessing operational Madden–Julian oscillation forecasts: a CLIVAR MJO Working Group Project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:1247–1258
Zhang S, Rosati A (2010) An inflated ensemble filter for ocean data assimilation with a biased coupled GCM. Mon Weather Rev 138:3905–3931
Vitart F, Buizza R, Balmaseda M, Balsamo G, Bidlot J-R, Bonet A, Fuentes M, Hofstadler A, Molteni F, Palmer TN (2008) The new VarEPS-monthly forecasting system: a first step towards seamless prediction. Q J R Meteorol Soc 134:1789–1799
Hazeleger W, Severijns C, Semmler T, Ştefãnescu S, Yang S, Wang X, Wyser K, Dutra E, Baldasano J, Bintanja R, Bougeault P, Caballero R, Ekman AML, Christensen JH, van den Hurk B, Jimenez P, Jones C, Kållberg P, Koenigk T, McGrath R, Miranda P, van Noije T, Palmer T, Parodi J, Schmith T, Selten F, Storelvmo T, Sterl A, Tapamo H, Vancoppenolle M, Viterbo P, Willén U (2010) EC-Earth: a seamless earth system prediction approach in action. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:1357–1363
Books and Reviews
Hurrell JW, Delworth T, Danabasoglu G, Drange H, Griffies S, Holbrook N, Kirtman B, Keenlyside N, Latif M, Marotzke J, Meehl G A, Palmer T, Pohlmann H, Rosati T, Seager, R, Smith D, Sutton R, Timmermann A, Trenberth KE, and Tribbia J (2010) Decadal climate prediction: opportunities and challenges. In: Hall J, Harrison DE, Stammer D (eds) Proceedings of OceanObs’09: sustained ocean observations and information for society, vol 2. ESA Publication WPP-306: Venice, 21–25 Sep 2009. Available at http://www.oceanobs09.net/blog/?p=97
Latif M, Delworth T, Dommenget D, Drange H, Hazeleger W, Hurrell J, Keenlyside N, Meehl GA, and Sutton R (2010) Dynamics of decadal climate variability and Implications for its prediction. In: Hall J, Harrison DE, Stammer D (eds) Proceedings of OceanObs’09: sustained ocean observations and information for society, vol 2. ESA Publication WPP-306: Venice, 21–25 Sep 2009. Available at http://www.oceanobs09.net/blog/?p=104
Mehta V, Meehl GA, Goddard L, Knight J, Kumar A, Latif M, Lee T, Rosati A, Stammer D (2010) The eighth workshop on decadal climate variability decadal climate predictability and prediction: where are we? Bull Am Meteorol Soc. doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3025.1
Murphy J, Kattsov V, Keenlyside N, Kimoto M, Meehl G, Mehta V, Pohlmann H, Scaife A, Smith D (2010) Towards prediction of decadal climate variability and change. Procedia Environ Sci 1:287–304. doi:10.1016/j.proenv.2010.09.018
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Goddard, L. (2012). Climate Predictions, Seasonal-to-Decadal. In: Rasch, P. (eds) Climate Change Modeling Methodology. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5767-1_11
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5767-1_11
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY
Print ISBN: 978-1-4614-5766-4
Online ISBN: 978-1-4614-5767-1
eBook Packages: Physics and AstronomyPhysics and Astronomy (R0)