Abstract
Predictive microbiology in foods is a research area within food microbiology intended to provide mathematical models to predict microbial behavior in food environments. Although the first predictive models were dated at the beginning of the 20th century, its great development has occurred in the past decades as a result of computer software advances. In addition to the exhaustive knowledge on food microbiology, the predictive microbiology field is based on important mathematical and modeling concepts that should be previously introduced for predictive microbiology beginners. The different typology of predictive models allows predicting growth, inactivation, and probability of growth of bacteria in foods under different environmental conditions and considering additional factors such as the physiological state of cells or interaction with other microorganisms. Nowadays, predictive models have become a necessary tool to support decisions concerning food safety and quality because models can provide rapid responses to specific questions. Furthermore, predictive models have been incorporated as helpful elements into the self-control systems such as Hazard Analysis for Critical Control Point (HACCP) programs and food safety risk-based metrics. National and international food safety policies are now based on the development of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment studies, which is greatly supported by the application of predictive models. Predictive microbiology is still growing but at the same time is turning into an important tool for improving food safety and quality.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Baranyi J, Roberts TA (1994) A dynamic approach to predicting bacterial growth in food. Int J Food Microbiol 23:277–294. doi:10.1016/0168-1605(94)90157-0
Bigelow WD (1921) The logarithmic nature of thermal death time curves. J Infect Dis 27:528–536. doi:10.1093/infdis/29.5.528
Bigelow WD, Esty JR (1920) The thermal death point in relation to typical thermophylic organisms. J Infect Dis 27:602–617. doi:10.1093/infdis/27.6.602
Brul S, Mensonides FIC, Hellingwerf KJ, Teixeira de Mattos MJ (2008) Microbial systems biology: new frontiers open to predictive microbiology. Int J Food Microbiol 128:16–21. doi:10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2008.04.029
Castillejo-Rodríguez AM, Gimeno RMG, Cosano GZ, Alcalá EB, Pérez MR (2002) Assessment of mathematical models for predicting Staphylococcus aureus growth in cooked meat products. J Food Prot 65:659–665
Codex Alimentarius Commission (1999) Principles and guidelines for the conduct of microbiological risk assessment. CAC/GL-30-1999. Secretariat of the Joint FAO/WHO Food Standards Programme. FAO, Rome
Dalgaard P, Buch P, Silberg S (2002) Seafood Spoilage Predictor: development and distribution of a product specific application software. Int J Food Microbiol 73:343–349. doi:10.1016/S0168-1605(01)00670-5
Dupont C, Augustin JC (2009) Influence of stress on single-cell lag time and growth probability for Listeria monocytogenes in half Fraser broth. Appl Environ Microbiol 75:3069–3076. doi:10.1128/AEM.02864-08
Esty JR, Meyer KF (1922) The heat resistance of spores of B. botulinus and related anaerobes. J Infect Dis 31:650–663. doi:10.1093/infdis/31.6.650
Genigeorgis CA (1981) Factors affecting the probability of growth of pathogenic microorganisms in foods. J Am Vet Med Assoc 179:1410–1417
Gibson AM, Bartchetll N, Roberts TA (1987) The effect of sodium chloride and temperature on the rate and extent of growth of Clostridium botulinum type A in pasteurised pork slurry. J Appl Bacteriol 62:479–490. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2672.1987.tb02680.x
Janevska DP, Gospavic R, Pacholewicz E, Popov V (2010) Application of a HACCP–QMRA approach for managing the impact of climate change on food quality and safety. Food Res Int 43:1915–1924. doi:10.1016/j.foodres.2010.01.025
Koutsoumanis K, Nychas GJE (2000) Application of a systematic experimental procedure to develop a microbial model for rapid fish shelf life prediction. Int J Food Microbiol 60:171–184. doi:10.1016/S0168-1605(00)00309-3
Lammerding AM, Fazil A (2000) Hazard identification and exposure assessment for microbial food safety risk assessment. Int J Food Microbiol 58:147–157. doi:10.1016/S0168-605(00)00269-5
Lammerding AM, Paoli GM (1997) Quantitative risk assessment: an emerging tool for emerging foodborne pathogens. Emerg Infect Dis 3:483–487. doi:10.3201/eid0304.970411
Larsen P, Hamada Y, Gilbert J (2012) Modeling microbial communities: current, developing, and future technologies for predicting microbial community interaction. J Biotechnol. doi:10.1016/j.jbiotec.2012.03.009
Mataragas M, Drosinos EH, Vaidanis A, Metaxopoulos I (2006) Development of a predictive model for spoilage of cooked cured meat products and its validation under constant and dynamic temperature storage conditions. J Food Sci 71:M157–M167. doi:10.1111/j.1750-3841.2006.00058.x
Mataragas M, Zwietering MH, Skandamis PN, Drosinos EH (2010) Quantitative microbiological risk assessment as a tool to obtain useful information for risk managers–specific application to Listeria monocytogenes and ready-to-eat meat products. Int J Food Microbiol 141((suppl)):S170–S179. doi:10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2010.01.005
McDonald K, Sun DW (1999) Predictive food microbiology for the meat industry: a review. Int J Food Microbiol 52:1–27. doi:10.1016/S0168-1605(99)00126-9
McMeekin TA, Ross T (2002) Predictive microbiology: providing a knowledge-based framework for change management. Int J Food Microbiol 78:133–153. doi:10.1016/S0168-1605(02)00231-3
McMeekin TA, Olley J, Ross T, Ratkowsky DA (1993a) Predictive microbiology: theory and application. Research Studies Press, Taunton
McMeekin TA, Olley JN, Ross T, Ratkowsky DA (1993b) Predictive microbiology: theory and application. Trends Food Sci Technol 4:340. doi:10.1016/0924-2244(93)90049-G
McMeekin TA, Olley J, Ratkowsky DA, Ross T (2002) Predictive microbiology: towards the interface and beyond. Int J Food Microbiol 73:395–407. doi:10.1016/S0168-1605(01)00663-8
Membré JM, Lambert R (2008) Application of predictive modelling techniques in industry: from food design up to risk assessment. Int J Food Microbiol 128:10–15. doi:10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2008.07.006
Métris A, George S, Baranyi J (2011) Modelling osmotic stress by flux balance analysis at the genomic scale. Int J Food Microbiol 152:123–128. doi:10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2011.06.016
Monod J (1949) The growth of bacterial cultures. Annu Rev Microbiol 3:371–394. doi:10.1146/annurev.mi.03.100149.002103
Nixon PA (1971) Temperature integration as a means of assessing storage conditions. Report on quality in fish products. Seminar No. 3. Fishing Industry Board, New Zealand, pp 33–44
Pérez-Rodríguez F, Valero A, Carrasco E, García-Gimeno RM, Zurera G (2008) Understanding and modelling bacterial transfer to foods: a review. Trends Food Sci Technol 19:131–144. doi:10.1016/j.tifs.2007.08.003
Pin C, Avendaño-Pérez G, Cosciani E, Gómez N, Gounadakic A, Nychas G, Skandamis P, Barker G (2011) Modelling Salmonella concentration throughout the pork supply chain by considering growth and survival in fluctuating conditions of temperature, pH and aw. Int J Food Microbiol 145:S96–S102. doi:0.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2010.09.025
Ratkowsky DA (2004) Model fitting and uncertainty. In: McKellar RC, Lu X (eds) Modelling microbial responses in foods. CRC Press, Boca Raton, pp 191–195
Ratkowsky DA, Olley J, McMeekin TA, Ball A (1982) Relationship between temperature and growth rates of bacterial cultures. J Bacteriol 149:1–5
Roberts TA, Jarvis B (1983) Predictive modelling of food safety with particular reference to Clostridium botulinum in model cured meat systems. In: Roberts TA, Skinner FA (eds) Food microbiology: advances and prospects. Academic Press, New York, pp 85–95
Roberts TA, Gibson AM, Robinson A (1981) Prediction of toxin production by Clostridium botulinum in pasteurised pork slurry. J Food Technol 16:337–355
Ross T, Ratkowsky DA, Mellefont LA, McMeekin TA (2003) Modelling the effects of temperature, water activity, pH and lactic acid concentration on the growth rate of Escherichia coli. Int J Food Microbiol 82:33–43. doi:10.1016/S0168-1605(02)00252-0
Rosso L, Lobry JR, Bajard S, Flandrois JP (1995) Convenient model to describe the combined effects of temperature and pH on microbial growth. Appl Environ Microbiol 61:610–616
Salter MA, Ross T, Ratkowsky DA, McMeekin TA (2000) Modelling the combined temperature and salt (NaCl) limits for growth of a pathogenic Escherichia coli strain using generalised non-linear regression. Int J Food Microbiol 61:159–167. doi:10.1016/S0168-1605(00)00352-4
Scott WJ (1937) The growth of microorganisms on ox muscle. I. The influence of temperature. J Counc Sci Ind Res Aust 10:338–350
Shimoni E, Labuza PT (2000) Modelling pathogen growth in meat products: future challenges. Trends Food Sci Technol 11:394–402. doi:10.1016/S0924-2244(01)00023-1
Spencer R, Baines CR (1964) The effect of temperature on the spoilage of wet fish: I. Storage at constant temperature between -1°C and 25°C. Food Technol Champaign 18:769–772
Stringer M (2005) Summary report. Food safety objectives—role in microbiological food safety management. Food Cont 16:775–794. doi:10.1016/j.foodcont.2004.10.018
Sumner J, Krist K (2002) The use of predictive microbiology by the Australian meat industry. Int J Food Microbiol 73:363–366. doi:10.1016/S0168-1605(01)00672-9
Vaikousi H, Biliaderis CG, Koutsoumanis K (2009) Applicability of a microbial time temperature indicator (TTI) for monitoring spoilage of modified atmosphere packed minced meat. Int J Food Microbiol 133:272–278. doi:10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2009.05.030
Valero A, Rodríguez M, Carrasco E, Pérez-Rodríguez F, García-Gimeno RM, Zurera G (2010) Studying the growth boundary and subsequent time to growth of pathogenic Escherichia coli serotypes by turbidity measurements. Food Microbiol 27:819–828. doi:10.1016/j.fm.2010.04.016
Van Boekel MAJS (2008) Kinetic modelling of food quality: a critical review. Compr Rev Food Sci Food Saf 7:144–158. doi:10.1111/j.1541-4337.2007.00036.x
Van Schothorst MV (2004) A proposed framework for the use of FSOs. Food Cont. doi:10.1016/j.foodcont.2004.10.021
Vermeiren L, Devlieghere F, Vandekinderen I, Debevere J (2006) The interaction of the non-bacteriocinogenic Lactobacillus sakei 10A and lactocin S producing Lactobacillus sakei 148 towards Listeria monocytogenes on a model cooked ham. Food Microbiol 23:511–518. doi:10.1016/j.fm.2005.10.005
Zwietering MH, Jongenburger I, Rombouts FM, Van’t Riet D (1990) Modelling of the bacterial growth curve. App Environ Microbiol 56:1876–1881
Zwietering MH, Witjzes T, de Wit JC, Van’t Riet K (1992) A decision support system for prediction of the microbial spoilage in foods. J Ind Microbiol 12:324–329. doi:10.1007/BF01584209
Zwietering MH, de Wit JC, Notermans S (1996) Application of predictive microbiology to estimate the number of Bacillus cereus in pasteurised milk at the point of consumption. Int J Food Microbiol 30:55–70. doi:10.1016/0168-1605(96)00991-9
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 Fernando Pérez-Rodríguez and Antonio Valero
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Pérez-Rodríguez, F., Valero, A. (2013). Predictive Microbiology in Foods. In: Predictive Microbiology in Foods. SpringerBriefs in Food, Health, and Nutrition, vol 5. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5520-2_1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5520-2_1
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY
Print ISBN: 978-1-4614-5519-6
Online ISBN: 978-1-4614-5520-2
eBook Packages: Chemistry and Materials ScienceChemistry and Material Science (R0)