Advertisement

Modeling Contact and Mobility Based Social Response to the Spreading of Infectious Diseases

Chapter

Abstract

We present here a set of prototypical mechanisms aimed at modeling the social adaptation and response triggered in the population by the knowledge of the spreading of an infectious disease. We define models that couples the spreading of information and behavioral changes with the spreading of the infectious disease by considering the local and non-local prevalence-based information available to individuals in the population. The behavioral changes are modeled both as the onset of effective social distancing and contact reduction as well as changes in the mobility patterns of individuals. The defined models exhibit a rich phase space with multiple epidemic peaks and threshold behavior. In addition, we show that in specific cases the change of mobility pattern may counterintuitively enhance the disease spreading. The class of models presented here can be used in the case of data-driven computational approaches to analyze scenarios of social adaptation and behavioral change.

References

  1. 1.
    Epstein, J.M., Parker, J., Cummings, D., Hammond, R.A.: PLoS ONE 3(12), e3955 (2008)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. 2.
    Lynch, A.: J. Ideas 2, 3 (1991)Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Funk, S., Gilad, E., Watkins, C., Jansen, V.: Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 106, 6872 (2009)MATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    DeFleur, M.L., Ball-Rokeach, S.: Theories of Mass Communication. Longman, NY (1989)Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Kermack, W., McKendrick, A.: P. Roy. Soc. Lond. A Mat. 115, 700 (1927)MATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. 6.
    Keeling, M.J., Rohani, P.: Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals. Princeton Univeristy Press, New Jersey (2008)MATHGoogle Scholar
  7. 7.
    Perra, N., Balcan, D., Gonçalves, B., Vespignani, A.: Towards a Characterization of Behavior-Disease Models. PLoS ONE 6(8):e23084. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0023084 (2011)Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Fenichel, E., Castillo-Chavez, C., Ceddia, M., Chowell, G., Gonzalez Parrae, P., Hickling, G.J., Holloway, G., Horan, R., Morin, B., Perrings, C., Springborn, M., Velazquez, L., Villalobos, C.: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 108, 6306 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. 9.
    Chen, F., Jiang, M., Rabidoux, S., Robinson, S.: J. Theor. Biol. 278, 107 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. 10.
    Poletti, P., Ajelli, M., Merler, S.: PLoS ONE 6(2), e16460 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. 11.
    Poletti, P., Caprile, B., Ajelli, M., Pugliese, A., Merler, S.: J. Theor. Biol. 260, 31 (2009)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. 12.
    Coelho, F., Codeço, C.: PLoS Comput. Biol. 5(7), e1000425 (2009)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. 13.
    Bagnoli, F., Lio, P., Sguanci, L.: Phys. Rev. E 76, 061904 (2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. 14.
    Crosby, A.W.: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1990)Google Scholar
  15. 15.
    Bootsma, M., Ferguson, N.: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 104, 7588 (2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. 16.
    Hatchett, R., Mecher, C., Lipsitch, M.: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 104, 7582 (2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. 17.
    Markel, H., Lipman, H., Navarro, J., Sloan, A., Michalsen, J., Stern, A., Cetron, M.S.: J. Am. Med. Assoc. 298, 6 (2007)Google Scholar
  18. 18.
    Funk, S., Salathé, M., Jansen, V.A.A.: J. R. Soc. Interface 7, 1247 (2010)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. 19.
    Eames, K.: J. R. Soc. Interface 6, 811 (2009)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. 20.
    Gross, T., D’Lima, C.J.D., Blasius, B.: Phys. Rev. Lett. 96, 208701 (2006)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. 21.
    Meloni, S., Perra, N., Arenas, A., Gomez, S., Moreno, Y., Vespignani, A.: Modeling human mobility responses to the large-scale spreading of infectious diseases, Scientific Reports 1, 62, doi:10.1038/srep00062 (2011)Google Scholar
  22. 22.
    Colizza, V., Vespignani, A.: J. Theor. Biol. 251, 450 (2008)MathSciNetCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. 23.
    Colizza, V., Vespignani, A.: Phys. Rev. Lett. 99, 148701 (2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. 24.
    Balcan, D., Vespignani, A.: Nature Phys. 7, 581–586 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. 25.
    Catanzaro, M., Boguña, M., Pastor-Satorras, R.: Phys. Rev. E 71, 027103 (2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical SystemsNortheastern UniversityBostonUSA

Personalised recommendations