Chapter

Handbook of Computational Approaches to Counterterrorism

pp 225-243

Date:

Forecasting Changes in Terror Group Behavior

  • Maria Vanina MartinezAffiliated withDepartment of Computer Science, University of Oxford Email author 
  • , Amy SlivaAffiliated withCollege of Computer and Information Science, Northeastern University
  • , Gerardo I. SimariAffiliated withDepartment of Computer Science, University of Oxford
  • , V. S. SubrahmanianAffiliated withDepartment of Computer Science, University of Maryland College Park

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Abstract

The ability to model, forecast, and analyze the behaviors of other agents has applications in many diverse contexts. For example, behavioral models can be used in multi-player games to forecast an opponent’s next move, in economics to forecast a merger decision by a CEO, or in international politics to predict the behavior of a rival state or group. Such models can facilitate formulation of effective mitigating responses and provide a foundation for decision-support technologies.