Lines of Product System Evolution

Abstract

In the study of the patent literature, we not only see common trends in the repeated use of the same general inventive principles, but also common trends in how products and systems evolve. These “lines of evolution” allow us to qualitatively, forecast how products and businesses will evolve. We need to emphasize that these lines are qualitative not quantitative. These lines do not tell us in what time frame these changes will occur. Another aspect of these lines is that they contain many discontinuities that are not natural extensions of current products and businesses. This fact forces organizations to consider how they will handle these discontinuities. This may require substantial changes in the type of people hired, the schools where recruiting is done, and what groups and societies are of interest and are supported. This can be a difficult challenge for many organizations.