Skip to main content

Artificial Neural Networks-Based Forecasting: An Attractive Option for Just-in-Time Systems

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Just-in-Time Systems

Abstract

Just-in-time (JIT) systems focus on lead-time reduction and equalization to make them respond rapidly to changes in demand. Lead-time variability in real life production, however, does affect the performance of JIT systems. This makes demand forecasting an important task to ponder. In this chapter, the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is advocated as an attractive approach to forecast demand for JIT systems. ANNs’ capabilities to accommodate nonlinear dependencies and to generate forecasts for multiple periods ahead are among the most important reasons to consider for their adoption. A general method to build ANNs for time series prediction is presented aiming to circumvent some of the perceived difficulties associated to these models. Two case studies are also provided to illustrate the intended use.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Bishop, C.M.: Neural Networks for Pattern Recognition. Oxford University Press, Oxford (1995)

    Google Scholar 

  2. Cabrera-Ríos, M., Castro, J.M., Mount-Campbell, C.A.: Multiple quality criteria optimization in reactive in-mold coating with a data envelopment analysis approach II: a case with more than three performance measures. Journal of Polymer Engineering 24, 435–450 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Cabrera-Ríos, M., Castro, J.M., Mount-Campbell, C.A.: Multiple quality criteria optimization in in-mold coating (IMC) with a data envelopment analysis approach. Journal of Polymer Engineering 22, 305–340 (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  4. Castro, C.E., Cabrera-Ríos, M., Lilly, B., Castro, J.M., Mount-Campbell, C.A.: Identifying the best compromise between multiple performance measures in injection holding (IM) using data envelopment analysis (DEA). Journal of Integrated Design and Process Science 7, 77–87 (2003)

    Google Scholar 

  5. Castro, J.M., Cabrera-Ríos, M., Mount-Campbell, C.A.: Modelling and Simulation in reactive polymer processing. Modelling and Simulation in Materials Science and Engineering 3, S121-S149 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Deb, K.: Multi-Objective Optimization Using Evolutionary Algorithms. Wiley, New York (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  7. Devore, J.L.: Probability and Statistics for Engineering the Sciences.4th Edition, Duxbury Press, California (1995)

    Google Scholar 

  8. Hagan, M.T., Demuth, H.B., Beale, M.: Neural Network Design. PWS Publishing Company, Boston (1996)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Hansen, J.V., Nelson, R.D.: Forecasting and recombining time-series components by using neural networks. Journal of the Operations Research Society 54, 307–317 (2003)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  10. Hillermeier, C.: Nonlinear Multiobjective Optimization: A Generalized Homotopy Approach. Birkhauser Verlag, Munich (2001)

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  11. Hornik, K., Stinchcombe, M., White, H.: Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Networks 5, 359–366 (1989)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Hwarng, H.B.: Insights into neural-network forecasting of time series corresponding to ARMA (p, q) structures. Omega: The International Journal of Management Science 29, 273–289 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Liao, K.-P., Fildes, R.: The accuracy of a procedural approach to specifying feedforward neural networks for forecasting. Computers & Operations Research 32, 151–2169 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Medeiros, M.C., Pedreira, C.E.: What are the effects of forecasting linear time series with neural networks? Logistic and Transportation Review 31, 239–251 (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  15. Salazar-Aguilar, M.A., Moreno Rodríguez, G.M., Cabrera-Rios, M.: Statistical Characterization and Optimization of Artificial Neural Networks in Time Series Forecasting: The One Period Forecast Case. Computación y Sistemas 10, 69–81 (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  16. White, H.: Connectionist nonparametric regression: Multilayer feedforward networks can learn arbitrary mappings. Neural Networks 3, 535–549 (1990)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Zhang, G.P.: Neural Networks in Business Forecasting. Idea Group Publishing, Georgia (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Zhang, G.P., Hu, M.: A simulation study of artificial neural networks for nonlinear time series forecasting. Computers & Operations Research 28, 381–396 (2001)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  19. Zhang, G., Patuwo, E., Hu, M.: Forecasting with artificial neural networks the state of the art. International Journal of Forecasting 14, 35-62 (1998)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mauricio Cabrera-Ríos .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Cabrera-Ríos, M., Salazar-Aguilar, M.A., Villarreal-Marroquín, M.G., Salazar, Á.P.A. (2012). Artificial Neural Networks-Based Forecasting: An Attractive Option for Just-in-Time Systems. In: Ríos-Mercado, R., Ríos-Solís, Y. (eds) Just-in-Time Systems. Springer Optimization and Its Applications(), vol 60. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-1123-9_11

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics