Abstract
Temperature data from land and marine areas form the basis for many studies of climatic variations on local, regional and hemispheric scales, and the global mean temperature is a fundamental measure of the state of the climate system. In this paper it is shown that the surface temperature of the globe has warmed by about 0.5°C since the mid-nineteenth century. This is an important part of the evidence in the ‘global warming’ debate (Folland et al., 1990, 1992). How certain are we about the magnitude of the warming? Where has it been greatest? In this paper, these and related issues will be addressed.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
ALLAN, R.J., NICHOLLS, N., JONES, P.D. and BUTTERWORTH, I.J. A further extension of the Tahiti-Darwin SOI, early ENSO events and Darwin pressure Journal of Climate, 4, 743–749, 1991.
BOTTOMLEY, M., FOLLAND, C.K., HSIUNG, J., NEWELL, R.E. and PARKER, D.E. Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas (GOSTA), H.M.S.O., London, 20pp., 1990, 313 plates.
BRADLEY, R.S., KELLY, P.M., JONES, P.D., GOODESS, C.M. and DIAZ, H.F., A Climatic Data Bank for Northern Hemisphere Land Areas, 1851–1980 U.S. Dept. of Energy, Carbon Dioxide Research Division, Technical Report TR017, 335pp., 1985.
BRADLEY, R.S., DIAZ, H.F., KILADIS, G. and EISCHEID, J.K., ENSO signal in continental temperature and precipitation records, Nature 327, 497–501, 1987.
FOLLAND, C.K., PARKER, D.E. and KATES, F.E., Worldwide marine fluctuations 1856–1981, Nature 310, 670–673, 1984.
FOLLAND, C.K., and PARKER, D.E., Observed variations of sea surface temperature, In Climate-Ocean Interaction, (M.E. Schlesinger, Ed.), NATO Workshop, Oxford, Kluwer Academic Press, Dordrecht, 31–52, 1990.
FOLLAND, C.K. and PARKER, D.E., Worldwide surface temperature trends since the mid 19th century, In, Greenhouse-gas-induced Climatic Change: A critical appraisal of simulations and observations (M.E. Schlesinger, Ed.), Elsevier Scientific Publishers, New York, 173–194, 1991.
FOLLAND, C.K., KARL, T.R. and VINNIKOV, K.Ya., Observed climate variations and change, In Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, (J.T. HOUGHTON, G.J. JENKINS and J.J. EPHRAUMS, Eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 195–238, 1990.
FOLLAND, C.K., KARL, T.R., NICHOLLS, N., NYENZI, B.S., PARKER, D.E. and VINNIKOV, K.Ya., Observed climate variability and climate, In Climate Change 1992. The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment (J.T. Houghton, B.A. Callander and S.K. Varney, Eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 135–170, 1992.
HANSEN, J.E. and LEBEDEFF, S., Global trends of measured surface air temperature, J. Geophys. Res. 92, 13345–13372, 1987.
HANSEN, J.E. and LEBEDEFF, S., Global surface temperatures: update through 1987, Geophys. Res. Letters 15, 323–326, 1988.
JAMES R.W. and FOX, P.T., Comparative sea-surface temperature measurements, Marine Science Affairs Report No.5, WMO 336, 27pp, 1972.
JONES, P.D., Hemispheric surface air temperature variations: Recent trends and an update to 1987, Journal of Climate 1, 654–660, 1988.
JONES, P.D., The influence of ENSO on global temperatures, Climate Monitor, 17, 80–89, 1989.
JONES, P.D. and WIGLEY, T.M.L., Global warming trends, Scientific American, 263, 84–91, 1990.
JONES, P.D., RAPER, S.C.B., SANTER, B.D., CHERRY, B.S.G., GOODESS, C.M., KELLY, P.M., WIGLEY, T.M.L., BRADLEY, R.S. and DIAZ, H.F., A Grid Point Surface Air Temperature Data Set for the Northern Hemisphere, U.S. Dept. of Energy, Carbon Dioxide Research Division, Technical Report TR022, 251pp, 1985.
JONES, P.D., RAPER, S.C.B., BRADLEY, R.S., DIAZ, H.F., KELLY, P.M. and WIGLEY, T.M.L., Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature variations: 1851–1984, Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 25, 161–179, 1986a.
JONES, P.D., RAPER, S.C.B, and WIGLEY, T.M.L., Southern Hemisphere surface air temperature variations: 1851–1984, Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 25, 1213–1230, 1986b.
JONES, P.D., RAPER, S.C.B., CHERRY, B.S.G., GOODESS, C.M. and WIGLEY, T.M.L., A Grid Point Surface Air Temperature Data Set for the Southern Hemisphere, 1851–1984, U.S. Dept. of Energy, Carbon Dioxide Research Division, Technical Report TR027, 73pp, 1986c.
JONES, P.D., WIGLEY, T.M.L. and WRIGHT, P.B., Global temperature variations, 1861–1984, Nature 322, 430–434, 1986d.
JONES, P.D., KELLY, P.M., GOODESS, C.M. and KARL, T.R., The effect of urban warming on the Northern Hemisphere temperature average, Journal of Climate 2, 285–290, 1990.
JONES, P.D., GROISMAN, P.Ya., COUGHLAN, M., PLUMMER, N., WANG, W-C. and KARL, T.R., Assessment of urbanization effects in time series of surface air temperature over land, Nature 347, 169–172, 1990.
JONES, P.D., WIGLEY, T.M.L. and FARMER, G., Marine and land temperature data sets: A comparison and a look at recent trends, In Greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change: A critical appraisal of simulations and observations, (M.E. Schlesinger Ed.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 153–172, 1991.
KARL, T.R. and JONES, P.D., Urban bias in area-averaged surface air temperature trends, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 70, 265–270, 1989.
KARL, T.R., DIAZ, H.F. and KUKLA, G., Urbanization: Its detection and effect in the United States climate record, Journal of Climate 1, 1099–1123, 1988.
MADDEN, R.A., SHEA, D.J., BRANSTATOR, G.W., TRIBBIA, J.J. and WEBER, R., The effects of imperfect spatial and temporal sampling on estimates of the global mean temperature: Experiments with model and satellite data, J. Climate (in press), 1992.
NICHOLLS, N. and KATZ, R.W., Teleconnections and their implications for long-range forecasts, In Teleconnections linking worldwide climate anomalies, (M.H. Glantz, R.W. Katz and N. Nicholls, Eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 511–525, 1991.
PHILANDER, S.G.H., El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena, Nature 302, 295–301, 1983.
PHILANDER, S.G.H., El Niño and La Niña, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 42, 2652–2662, 1985.
ROPELEWSKI, C.F. and HALPERT, M.S. (Eds.), Climate Assessment: A Decadal Review 1981–1990, Climate Analysis Center, NOAA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, 109pp, 1991.
ROPELEWSKI, C.F. and JONES, P.D., An extension of the Tahiti-Darwin Southern Oscillation Index, Monthly Weather Review 115, 2161–2165, 1987.
VAN LOON, H. and SHEA, D.J., The Southern Oscillation. Pt. IV: The precursors south of 15°S to the extremes of the oscillation, Monthly Weather Review 113, 370–379, 1985.
VINNIKOV, K. YA., GROISMAN, P.Ya. and LUGINA, K.M., The empirical data on modern global climate changes (temperature and precipitation), J. Climate 3, 662–677, 1990.
WIGLEY, T.M.L., ANGELL, J.K. and JONES, P.D., Analysis of the temperature record, In Detecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide, (M.C. Mac-Cracken and F.M. Luther, Eds.), U.S. Dept. of Energy, Carbon Dioxide Research Division, 55–90, 1985.
WIGLEY, T.M.L., JONES, P.D. and KELLY, P.M., Empirical climate studies: warm world scenarios and the detection of climatic change induced by radiatively active gases, In The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change, and Ecosystems (B. Bolin, B.R. Doos, J. Jäger and R.A. Warrick, Eds.), SCOPE series, Wiley, 271–323, 1986.
WIGLEY, T.M.L. and JONES, P.D., Do large-area-average temperature series have an urban-warming bias? Climatic Change 12, 313–319, 1988.
WIGLEY, T.M.L. and BARNETT, T.P., Detection of the Greenhouse effect in the observations, In Climatic Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, (J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins and J.J. Ephraums, Eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 239–265, 1990.
WOODRUFF, S.D., SLUTZ, R.J., JENNE, R.J. find Steurer, P.M., A Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set, Bulletin American Meteorological Society 68, 1239–1250, 1987.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1996 Springer-Verlag New York, Inc.
About this paper
Cite this paper
Jones, P.D. (1996). Global Surface Temperature Changes Since the 1850s. In: Wheeler, M.F. (eds) Environmental Studies. The IMA Volumes in Mathematics and its Applications, vol 79. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-8492-2_10
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-8492-2_10
Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY
Print ISBN: 978-1-4613-8494-6
Online ISBN: 978-1-4613-8492-2
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive