The Impact of Climate Change on Spring Wheat Yield in Mongolia and Its Adaptability
The characteristics of the current tendency toward climate change in Mongolia and the doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) levels (referred to as 2XCO2) scenario from the General Circulation Model (GCM) are briefly described. The effect of climate change on the production of spring wheat in Mongolia, given the nation’s geographic and climatic conditions, was assessed. In general, the yield decreased 19–67% under the GCM-based 2XCO2 scenario. This scenario assumed that growing season temperatures and precipitation would increase, but that potential evapotranspiration would be higher. However, wheat yields for the actual climate change trend (i.e., reduced temperature during the growing season and increased precipitation) increased 10.4–70.2% at six of seven locations. Simulated adaptive measures, such as changing planting dates, using different varieties of spring wheat, and applying the ideal amount of nitrogen fertilizer at the optimum time, are potential responses that could modify the effects of climate change on wheat production.
KeywordsClimate Change Spring Wheat Wheat Yield Adaptation Option Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
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