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Uncertainty Propagation in Fault-Tree Analysis

  • A. G. Colombo

Abstract

This paper deals with methods of investigating the propagation of the uncertainty from the lower level (primary event) to the higher level (top) of a complex system, such as a nuclear plant.

A numerical method to determine the probability distribution at each level of the fault-tree is illustrated.

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References

  1. 1.
    US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Reactor Safety Study. An Assessment of Accident Risks in US Commercial Nuclear Power Plants”, WASH-1400, (NUREG-75/014), Washington D. C., October 1975Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    H. L. Royden, “Bounds on a Distribution Function when its First n Moments are Given”, Ann. Math. Stat., vol. 24: 361 –376 (1953)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. 3.
    Y. T. Lee and G. E. Apostolakis, “Probability Intervals for the Top Event Unavailability of Fault-Trees”, UCLA-ENG 7663, University of California, Los Angeles, June 1976Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    A. G. Colombo and R.J. Jaarsma, “A Powerful Numerical Method to Combine Random Variables”, to be published as EUR ReportGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    A. G. Colombo, R.J. Jaarsma and L. Olivi, “On the Statistical Data Processing for a Safety Data System”, Proceedings of the ANS Conference on Probabilistic Analysis of Nuclear Reactor Safety, Los Angeles, California, May 1978.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Plenum Press, New York 1980

Authors and Affiliations

  • A. G. Colombo
    • 1
  1. 1.Commission of the European CommunitiesJoint Research Centre - Ispra EstablishmentIspraItaly

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