The Future Blood Supply System in the USA: A Prognosis

Abstract

1. Demographic developments are directly tied to health care needs and, therefore, to blood needs. Major national demographic determinants are population growth, including factors such as birth, immigration and life expectancy rates, and population age distribution. At the regional level, developments in migration and ethnic distribution patterns are of additional importance. The movement of the ‘baby boom’ through the 25- to 40-year age bracket should initially improve the blood-giving segment of the eligible population. However, 20 to 30 years from now, the front runners of the ‘baby boom’ will begin to enter, in significant numbers, the high blood-using age period. The prediction is that this will result in a change in the blood donor to blood recipient ratio from 8 to 1 in the 70’s to 3 to 1 in 2025. This particular demographic evolution is probably the single most important one affecting blood supply and needs early in the 21st century.