Mathematical Approaches for Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases: Models, Methods, and Theory pp 157-169 | Cite as

# The Influence of Different Forms of Cross-Protective Immunity on the Population Dynamics of Antigenically Diverse Pathogens

## Abstract

We develop simple epidemic models of co-circulating strains of an infectious disease in which the strains interact immunologically via cross-protective acquired immune responses. Two limiting forms of cross-protective immunity are explored: reduction of infectivity on infection with a strain that against which a degree of cross-protective immunity exists from prior excposure to a heterologous strain, and reduction of susceptibility to infection after exposure to the second strain. After developing a generic model framework capable of representing both forms of action, we show that model formulation can be simplified for some simple cross-immunity structures in the case of infectivity reduction. We then discuss equilbria and stability properties of the generic model, before investigating in detail the special case of allele-based cross-immunity, where antigenic relatedness depends on the number of alleles shared between two strains of a haploid pathogen. For this system, we present conditions for the stability of the symmetric and boundary equilibria in the case of purely infectivity-mediated cross-immunity, and illustrate numerically the wide range of complex limit cycle or chaotic dynamics that dominate a large region of parameter space. Finally, we describe the similarities between the dynamics exhibited by systems with each form of immunity action, and discuss biological applications of such models.

## Key words

strains cross-protection epidemic model limit cycles stability analysis## Preview

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