Initial Conditions

Abstract

In this chapter, we provide detailed information needed to describe the state of the world at the end of the immediate post-nuclear war period. This is the first aspect of consequence analyses, as we calculate the effects on human and ecological systems that would occur during or immediately after the war. These numbers are necessary for two reasons: first to detail what the immediate cost of such a war would be and provide a basis for comparison with other analyses, many of which are limited to only these immediate consequences; and second to provide all the information necessary in order to perform the analyses of the subsequent consequences on humans, society, and the environment. In accordance with the latter point, this chapter will also include some analyses extending in time beyond the immediate period but necessary as precursors to other, longer-term analyses. For instance, included here will be a discussion of the state of the atmosphere with respect to particulate, radioisotope, photooxidant, and other loadings, and with respect to the. resultant atmospheric and climatic changes predicted. in the Turco et al. (1983a) work. Those results which include, for example, temperature depressions occurring maximally several weeks after the war and extending into the few-year time frame, then, are essential initial conditions for the subsequent consequence analyses of the effects on humans and the environment discussed in later chapters. Thus, initial conditions here include but are not limited to immediate conditions.