Generating Predictions

Abstract

Recall the first premise of condition 1 for a good test of a hypothesis:

if [H] then [P].

In this chapter we shall be concerned with the relationship between the theoretical hypothesis and the prediction. Specifically, when the theoretical hypothesis is stated mathematically then the power of centuries of true progress is available to the anthropologist for obtaining the prediction. Also recall the controversial assertion which was made earlier that in anthropology only stochastic theories are viable. In this section then we are concerned with modelling anthropological theories in the terms of probability theory. Later we shall have other recourse to probability theory for apparently different purposes but for now the goal is to model the theory.