Uncertainty Management in Battle-Planning Software

Abstract

Many types of uncertainty can arise in computer simulation modules which model command and control for battle planning This chapter treats the issue of computer simulated planning for battle planning experiments. Computer simulation of attrition, movement, and logistics are not included. Techniques for computer simulated battle-planning are reviewed. Implications of resolving conflicting planning methodologies and their effects on program design are discussed. It is the authors thesis that the model logic of current combat simulation models lacks the capability for reasoning ahead of its current state (i.e. look-aheads). This provides future combat simulation models a tremendous opportunity for “smart” command and control (C2) logic to reflect the knowledge of the commander rather than the “geometry” of the battlefield. Since perfect knowledge of battle-planning may not be attainable an effective trade-off is to adapt a less extreme position in which foresight is introduced into the models. These notions require a fundamental restructuring of combat simulations driven entirely by physical entities in order to economically address the different types of questions which arise in C2 planning.