Reliability Analysis as a Tool for Expressing and Communicating Uncertainty
A reliability analysis is supposed to be a tool for dealing with uncerainties. The analysis does not create uncertainty, but gives knowledge about the uncertainties related to the number of failures of a system, the downtime, etc. And probability is used as a measure of uncertainty. In this chapter we present main principles for execution and use of reliability analyses given this basis for the analyses. Examples are presented to illustrate the principles, in relation to the performance of a system having components being repaired or replaced at failures, and to a structural reliability analysis. The approach is compared with the classical framework for expressing and interpreting reliability, in which reliability is assumed to be a property of the system considered and the purpose of reliability analysis is to estimate this underlying true reliability.
Keywords and phrasesFoundational issues uncertainty Bayesian analysis subjective probability
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