Skip to main content

Estimating Volatility for Long Holding Periods

  • Chapter
Measuring Risk in Complex Stochastic Systems

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Statistics ((LNS,volume 147))

  • 402 Accesses

Abstract

The problem of estimating volatility is one of the most important topics in modern finance. Accurate specification of volatility is a prerequisite for modelling financial time series, such as interest rates or stocks, and crucially affects the pricing of contingent claims. Modelling volatility has therefore be widely discussed in the financial literature, see Campbell, Lo and MacKinlay (1997), chapter 12, Shiryaev (1999), chapter 4, or Taylor (1986), chapter 3 for overviews on the subject. The main focus in these studies has been to estimate volatility over short time periods and deduce results for longer period volatility from underlying models.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Bibliography

  • Andersen, T., Bollerslev, T., Diebold, F. and Labys, P. (1999). The distribution of exchange rate volatility, Technical report, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Financial Institutions Center.

    Google Scholar 

  • Andersen, T.G. and Bollerslev, T. (1998). DM-Dollar volatility: Intraday activity patterns, macroeconomic announcements, and longer-run dependencies, Journal of Finance 53: 219–265.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beveridge, S. and Nelson, C. (1981). A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle, J. Monetary Economics 7: 151–174.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bliss, R. and Smith, D. (1998). The elasticity of interest rate volatility Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders revisited, Journal of Risk 1(1): 21–46.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brockwell, P. and Davis, R. (1991). Times series: Theory and methods, 2 edn, Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Broze, L., Scaillet, O. and Zakoian, J. (1995). Testing for continuoustime models of the short-term interest rate, J. Empirical Finance 2: 199–223.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Campbell, J., Lo, A. and MacKinlay, A. (1997). The econometrics of financial markets, Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chan, K., Karolyi, G., Longstaff, F. and Saunders, A. (1992). An empirical comparison of alternative models of the short-term interest rates, Journal of Finance 47: 1209–1228.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cochrane, J. (1988). How big is the random walk in GNP, J. Political Economics 96(51): 893–920.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dankenbring, H. (1998). Volatility estimates of the short term interest rate with application to german data, Technical report, Graduiertenkollog Applied Microeconomics, Humboldt-and Free University Berlin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davis, R. and Resnick, S. (1986). Limit theory for the sample covariance and correlation functions of moving averages, Annals of Statistics 14(2): 533–558.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Drost, F. and Nijman, T. (1993). Temporal aggregation of GARCH processes, Econometrica 61: 909–927.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Drost, F. and Werker, B. (1996). Closing the GARCH gap: Continuous time GARCH modeling, Journal of Econometrics 74: 31–57.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Embrechts, P., KlĂ¼ppelberg, C. and Mikosch, P. (1997). Modelling extremal events, Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fuller, W. (1996). Introduction to statistical time series, John Wiley & Sons.

    Google Scholar 

  • Groenendijk, P., Lucas, A. and de Vries, C. (1998). A hybrid joint moment ratio test for financial time series, Technical report, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kiesel, R., Perraudin, W. and Taylor, A. (1999). The structure of credit risk, Technical report, Birkbeck College.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lo, A. and MacKinlay, A. (1988). Stock market prices do not follow random walks: Evidence from a simple specification test, Review of Financial Studies 1(1): 41–66.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maddala, G. and Kim, I. (1998). Unit root, cointegration, and structural change Themes in moderen econometrics, Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pagan, A. (1996). The econometrics of financial markets, J. Empirical Finance 3. 15–102.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shiryaev, A. (1999). Essentials of stochastic finance, Advanced Series of Statistical Science & Applied Probability 3. World Scientific.

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor, S. (1986). Modelling financial time series, J. Wiley & Sons.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2000 Springer Science+Business Media New York

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Kiesel, R., Perraudin, W., Taylor, A. (2000). Estimating Volatility for Long Holding Periods. In: Franke, J., Stahl, G., Härdle, W. (eds) Measuring Risk in Complex Stochastic Systems. Lecture Notes in Statistics, vol 147. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1214-0_2

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1214-0_2

  • Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY

  • Print ISBN: 978-0-387-98996-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-4612-1214-0

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics