Preliminary Requirements for a Knowledge Engineering Approach to Expert Judgment Elicitation in Probabilistic Safety Assessment
In this paper the problem of expert judgment (EJ) in Probabilistic Safety Assessment is recognised as a true knowledge problem. A critical analysis of traditional EJ methodologies leads to highlight some common weak points of theirs. The suggestion is made to reformulate the expert opinion issue in a Knowledge Engineering setting in order to reach a sound basis for comparison, integration and justification of expert knowledge and relevant uncertainty.
The proposed innovative approach is described in its goals, and requirements for its development are detailed.
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