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Peak Oil Futures: Same Crisis, Different Responses

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Energy, Transport, & the Environment

Abstract

Peak oil theory predicts that global oil production will soon start a terminal decline. Most proponents of the theory imply that no adequate alternate resource and technology will be available to replace oil as the backbone resource of industrial society. To understand what may happen if the proponents of peak oil theory are right, I analyze the historical experience of countries that have gone through a comparable experience. Japan (1918–1945), North Korea (1990s) and Cuba (1990s) have all been facing severe oil supply disruptions in the order of 20% or more. Despite the unique features of each case, it is possible to derive clues on how different parts of the world would react to a global energy crunch. The historical record suggests at least three possible peak oil trajectories: predatory militarism, totalitarian retrenchment, and socioeconomic adaptation.

This is a carefully revised version of my 2010 article ‘Global energy crunch: how different parts of the world would react to a peak oil scenario’, Energy Policy 38 (8): 4562–4569. Thanks to Elsevier for permission to reprint.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    For select readings on peak oil see Owen et al. [36], Aleklett et al. [2], Sorrell et al. [44], Hirsch [22], Brandt [7], United States Government Accountability Office [49], Hirsch et al. [24], Hubbert [26].

  2. 2.

    The predictions of most peak oil theorists are in this band; see the overviews provided by Sorrell et al. ([45], pp. 4998–4999) and Hirsch [22].

  3. 3.

    This is far above the formal threshold that the International Energy Agency stipulates for an international oil supply disruption (7%), and also higher than the shortfalls of global oil production during the oil crises of the 1970s (less than 7%).

  4. 4.

    In 1993 China refused to step in for Russia, demanding hard currency for any further exports and radically cutting deliveries of “friendship grain”.

  5. 5.

    In North Korea, coal was used in the production of fertilizers both as an energy source and as a chemical feedstock ([54], pp. 117–119). Fertilizer use fell by more than 80% from 1989 to 1998 ([14], p. 14).

  6. 6.

    See the Special Reports of the Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to the DPRK (especially [13, 14, 53]).

  7. 7.

    Official Cuban figures for the decline of imported raw materials and other vital inputs to industrial production and electricity generation were on a similar level (reported in Wright [57], p. 68). Even according to the most conservative estimate of the US Energy Information Administration, between 1989 and 1992 the consumption of petroleum in Cuba fell by 20% and the net consumption of electricity by 24% (http://www.eia.gov/countries/, viewed on 22 April 2011).

  8. 8.

    In a survey, 86% of people from vulnerable neighborhoods in Havana declared that they could count on support from relatives, 97% from friends, and 89% from neighbors ([47], p. 142).

  9. 9.

    Given the high population pressure in most developing countries, however, large segments of the population would fall victim to famine, disease and conflict.

  10. 10.

    For the long-term perspective see Greer [18, 19].

  11. 11.

    The predictions of most peak oil theorists are in this band; see the overviews provided by Sorrell et al. ([45], pp. 4998-4999) and Hirsch [22].

  12. 12.

    The UK might try to evade the quandary by stressing its special relationship with the US, but it is debatable whether Britain could offer enough benefits to its North American ally to justify the burden of provisioning another 60 million people with subsidized fuel.

  13. 13.

    This has been confirmed in 2011, when the Japanese responded in a highly calm and disciplined way to a Tsunami followed by serious social mayhem and a spectacular nuclear meltdown at the facilities in Fukushima.

  14. 14.

    Despite an increasing internal market, China still heavily relies on the exportation of industrial products. It may not yet have accumulated enough economic wealth to insulate itself against the demise of international free trade.

  15. 15.

    Especially the decline of petrol-based transportation after peak oil may pose a challenge to the implementation of ambitious modernization programs.

  16. 16.

    For a range of realistic estimates see Moriarty and Honnery ([34], p. 2472).

  17. 17.

    Renewable energy accounts for about 20% of global energy consumption, but only if we include traditional biomass and hydropower. This is somewhat odd, as poor Ethiopian women collecting firewood, and gigantic installations such as the Chinese Three Gorges Dam, are hardly what we mean by the term. If we do not include traditional biomass and hydropower, the figure is much smaller.

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Acknowledgments

Thanks to Martin Kraus for stimulating discussions and amicable feedback. I would also like to express my gratitude to Jocelyn Alexander, Andreas Goldthau, Barbara Harriss-White, Eva Herschinger, David Von Hippel, Dan Hicks, Robert Hirsch, Peter Katzenstein, John Mathews, Rana Mitter, Avner Offer, Gianfranco Poggi, Jochen Prantl, Jörg Schindler, Mary Stokes White, Marisa Wilson, and the anonymous reviewers of Energy Policy, for helpful suggestions and comments.

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  1. Department of International Development, University of Oxford, Queen Elizabeth House, 3 Mansfield Road, Oxford, OX1 3TB, UK

    Jörg Friedrichs

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    Oliver Inderwildi

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    Sir David King

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Friedrichs, J. (2012). Peak Oil Futures: Same Crisis, Different Responses. In: Inderwildi, O., King, S. (eds) Energy, Transport, & the Environment. Springer, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-2717-8_4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-2717-8_4

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