Forecasting Methods for Determining the Level of Safety Stock in Electronic Industry

Conference paper


The competition in industries force many companies to reduce production costs in order to gain more profit. This decision requires a good planning for production schedule. In production planning, forecasting theory to estimate future demand is an important aspect. The problem in this article is to choose the best forecasting method based on the characteristics of historical data in seasonal demand patterns. Results forecast error is then used to calculate the safety stock as a form of anticipatory strategies shortage of material. The results indicate that the best forecasting method is a combination method of Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing and Naïve, it can decrease Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) up to 63%.


Mean Square Error Service Level Mean Absolute Percentage Error Forecast Method Mean Absolute Deviation 
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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag London Limited  2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Fauzia Dianawati
    • 1
  • Isti Surjandari
    • 1
  • Rainy Nafitri
    • 1
  1. 1.Industrial Engineering DepartmentUniversity of IndonesiaDepokIndonesia

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